Picking & Grinning: Bellator 131

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Sherdog.com staff and contributors put their reputations on the line with bold predictions for the Bellator 131 main card, as Bellator MMA closes out its 11th season on Saturday at the Valley View Casino Center in San Diego. The event airs live on pay-per-view at 9 p.m. ET/8 p.m. CT:

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHTS

Tito Ortiz vs. Stephan Bonnar

Jordan Breen: Ortiz is faded, but he’s facing a historically flimsy brawler who has done less in the game than he has in the last three years. Official prediction: “The People’s Champion” starts hot, taking down Bonnar and pounding away. Then a masked Justin McCully runs into the cage with a steel chair. Ortiz ducks his chair shot and his former training partner accidentally lays out Bonnar. As McCully recoils in horror, Ortiz slams him to the mat in the style he did to the late Evan Tanner before tearing into the best gravedigger routine in years. Alternately: Ortiz wins by monotonous decision.

C.J. Tuttle: Whether it’s completely manufactured or stems from some deep-rooted hatred, the storyline heading into this fight has done enough to pique my interest as a main event-worthy matchup. For me, the fight comes down to Ortiz’s ability to smother his opponents, and I believe Bonnar will have absolutely no answer for it. However, if the grudge match does remain on the feet, I still feel like Bonnar will wilt taking some shots, as I question his true desire to come out of retirement. In the end, I’ll go with Ortiz via technical knockout.

Ian Robinson: Who saw this -- a grudge-match between two aging UFC hall of famers in the Bellator cage -- coming two years ago? Ortiz is fresh off a first-round humiliation of former Bellator middleweight champion Alexander Shlemenko. Bonnar hasn’t stepped foot in a cage since eating a knee to the solar plexus by then-UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva. A mere 25 months later, and here we are. The base of Ortiz’s game has always been wrestling, and I do not expect him to approach this fight any differently. Bonnar is the more well-rounded mixed martial artist, sporting a solid clinch and a top-heavy grappling game. The question mark revolves around how Bonnar looks after his two-plus year layoff. I lean more towards Ortiz here, suspecting he’ll be able to put “The American Psycho” on the canvas and grind out a unanimous decision.

TJ De Santis: Picking a winner in the main event seems fairly easy to me. Bonnar came out of retirement to poke a bear. I’m not sure I need to tell you, but you should never poke a bear. I think he was just looking to promote a fight, but a fight is truly what he’s going to get. Ortiz is fueled by anger and a desire to prove he still has something left. I like Ortiz to take down “The American Psycho” at will and punish him for 15 minutes. Bonnar will eat it all and not be stopped, but his tolerance for pain will be tested.

BELLATOR LIGHTWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP

Will Brooks vs. Michael Chandler

Tristen Critchfield: Brooks first generated interest among hardcore fans with a second-round knockout of Satoru Kitaoka at Dream 18. He then debuted in Bellator with a solid unanimous verdict over respected veteran Ricardo Tirloni, but his prospects cooled somewhat following a 43-second knockout defeat to Saad Awad at Bellator 91. Four straight wins would follow, but Brooks did little to capture the attention of the masses with his performances. That all changed when he received an unexpected title shot against Chandler in May. After a rough start, Brooks seemed to fulfill the rest of his unrealized potential as the bout unfolded. He would eventually hold on for a contentious split decision, solidifying his place among the sport’s top lightweights. The rematch could be just as interesting. Chandler showed tremendous heart in rallying back from adversity after Brooks dominated the third and fourth rounds. Chandler, an All-American wrestler at the University of Missouri, is a solid athletic talent with improving standup and submission defense. Brooks has already shown an ability to match Chandler’s wrestling prowess and has displayed overall improvement since his promotional debut. Chandler has barely lost his last two outings; his luck changes here, as he edges Brooks via decision.

Mike Fridley: Despite getting tuned up last time, I thoroughly believe Chandler will be the better man this time around. Being a short-notice opponent, Brooks was able to exploit some holes in Chandler’s game that simply will not be present in the rematch. Much like Awad did earlier in his career, look for Chandler to test Brooks’ chin with power shots. If he fails to put away the American Top Team product on the feet, I believe the Alliance MMA charge will have the wrestling chops to score a unanimous decision after a hard-fought 25 minutes.

Brian Knapp: The rightful main event on this card, I think this fight will tell us a lot about the trajectory of Chandler’s career. I happen to believe he is an elite talent at 155 pounds, a notch or two above Brooks, and that his abilities will shine through in the rematch. Perhaps he hurts Brooks standing and stops him with strikes on the ground or lands an opportunistic submission, but the more likely outcome is Chandler by decision.

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHTS

Muhammed Lawal vs. Joe Vedepo

Chris Nelson: This fight is what it is. Bellator has struggled to find quality opposition for its few top-tier light heavyweights, and it does not get any easier to find a solid 205er on short notice. When Tom DeBlass withdrew two weeks out, the promotion needed somebody -- anybody -- for “King Mo” to fight. The fact that Vedepo is an upsized middleweight is not entirely damning, since he has fought and won at heavyweight in the past. What makes prospects grim for “The Doctor” is that he is first and foremost a wrestler, and few have the wrestling chops to match Lawal once the fight hits the floor. Lawal has paid for taking opponents lightly in the past -- see Emanuel Newton -- so it’s hard to believe he would make that mistake again. Given the situation, I expect Lawal to come out cautiously and see what Vedepo has to offer in the opening round before turning up the heat and pounding his way to a stoppage. My pick is Lawal by second-round TKO.

Tuttle: On a main card that is full of toss-ups, the matchup between Lawal and Vedepo comes across as the biggest “sure thing,” in my opinion. Quite frankly, I just feel that “King Mo” has far too many physical tools and too much at risk at this stage of his Bellator MMA tenure to suffer a loss against Vedepo. Not to mention, Vedepo is coming into this fight on extremely short notice, thus stacking the odds against him even further. Lawal wins via technical knockout.

Mike Sloan: While this is an intriguing matchup, it’s deflating to know that “King Mo” won’t be putting his faux crown on the line against DeBlass. We have no choice but to accept Vedepo as a feasible replacement, as this late switch has taken the sails out of one Bellator 131’s best fights. However, while many cynics have cried high from the mountaintops that Vedepo is going to be mere cannon fodder for Lawal, I think he’s a much better late replacement than most. He’s got plenty of experience in Bellator and the UFC, and though his record may not indicate as much, he’s a solid competitor. Expect Vedepo to give “King Mo” some problems early on, but in the end, his effectiveness won’t last the entire fight. Look for Lawal to knock out Vedepo in less than four minutes.

MIDDLEWEIGHTS

Melvin Manhoef vs. Joe Schilling

Breen: In the future, if we need a specific moment or fight to point to as the moment where Scott Coker really took over Bellator, spiritually and philosophically, this is it. However, this is the coolest context for a 15-plus-year MMA veteran taking on a kickboxer with a 1-3 MMA mark and even markedly less of a developed MMA game than Manhoef. Both fighters are going to throw heavy, brutal strikes standing, and they will both land. A knockout is possible for either and a Schilling upset has real potential given Manhoef's shaky-and-deteriorating chin. However, this is the rare time in which Manhoef could ground-and-pound someone viciously without fear of a submission, which slightly tilts this car crash of a fight in his favor.

Tuttle: Who would be favored if this fight were taking place in Glory? If we’re solely looking at the MMA records of both men, I would be forced to side with the unparalleled punching power of Manhoef. However, having had the opportunity to see both men compete in person at Glory 17, I must pick Schilling. The heart shown by “Stitch ’em Up” over the course of three kickboxing contests in one show left a lasting impression on me, and I expect the man to start fresh in the MMA world with a split decision victory.

Robinson: Two high-level, world-renowned kickboxers sporting four-ounce gloves in a cage ... Enough said. The violence potential here is high, to say the least. Manhoef is well-known for his devastating power and ability to swarm opponents with combinations, but his chin has been in question for quite some time now. “Stitch ’Em Up” Schilling’s durability has never been in question, but his relative lack of experience in MMA could be a factor. Both of these fighters have significant holes in the defensive department, and smaller gloves are not going to help. Schilling will have the advantage in the clinch, an important aspect of his game that he was unable to utilize under Glory rules. I believe Schilling can pressure Manhoef against the fence with his Thai clinch and win the fight there. My pick is Schilling by second-round knockout.

De Santis: Manhoef gets to fight Schilling with MMA rules? The big question doesn’t really involve who will win but whether or not the Glory vets use those rules. I could see this fight looking exactly like a kickboxing match, just with longer rounds. However, I have to favor Manhoef based on his MMA experience alone. I think this is truly an up-in-the-air fight, with the real winners being the fans. It’s not a fight of consequence for rankings, but when the dust of this action-packed weekend settles, this bout might surface as the one we all go back to the DVR to watch again.

FEATHERWEIGHTS

Mike Richman vs. Nam Phan

Critchfield: Bellator MMA had one thing in mind when booking this fight to kick off the Spike TV-televised main card: entertainment. Richman, a former U.S. Marine with professional boxing experience, has earned all but one of his Bellator victories by first-round knockout or technical knockout. Phan, meanwhile, is known for his durability and tendency to stand and trade with opponents. While Phan’s chin has held up against some well-known foes during his UFC and Strikeforce tenure, his best days might be behind him. Phan is adept at putting together punching combinations, but he also absorbs plenty of punishment, which could be a point of concern against his hard-hitting opponent. Richman wins by decision or TKO.

Knapp: When I look at Phan, I can’t help but think of Jorge Gurgel and cringe at the fact that we rarely if ever see all his skills brought to bear inside the cage. He has made his career on being a consummate crowd-pleaser but at the expense of his win-loss record, as he lacks the power necessary to succeed with that style; Phan has too often gone elephant hunting with a pea shooter. I see Richman carving him up on the feet over the course of three rounds. He hits harder and his strikes are sharper, so a stoppage is not out of the question.

Fridley: It’s a shame to see one of the sport’s more respectable athletes fall from grace, but Phan’s plunge will commence with a mighty thud at Bellator 131 at the hands of one of MMA’s sharper boxers. The Paraestra Hachioji representative’s experience will play a factor in this matchup, but in a negative way, as Phan’s confidence will only lead him into trouble against the crisp hands of Richman. Phan’s chin has failed him against lesser strikers, so give me Richman by knockout in round two.