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Down the Pub: “The Real Deal” Preview

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LONDON — Faced with an obscene amount of competition this summer, Cage Rage has been forced to reach even deeper into its +1 magic bags of fighter finding in order to produce what was a seriously impressive looking card.

If the prospect of seeing Lee Murray return to the cage didn't do it for you then how about the prospect of seeing Gerald Strebendt take on Vitor Ribeiro? How about seeing the new super heavyweight sensation, Antonio Silva, take on Rafael Carino? How about seeing two Chute Boxe guys — Fabio Piamonte and Nilson de Castro — making their European debuts against Cyrille Diabate and Curtis Stout respectively? Travis Lutter against Matt Ewin? Mark Weir against Sol Gilbert?

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It's almost as if someone went down a list going: UFC veterans? Check. … PRIDE veteran? Check. … Chute Boxe? Check. … BTT? Check. … Etc. Of course, this wouldn't be MMA if there wasn't a tragic last-minute reshuffle of the card.

This time the main reason for anger in the balding parts of London is another unfortunate setback to the sidelined career of "Lightning" Lee Murray. The Englishman was due to return to the cage on Saturday to face Japanese wrestler Kyosuke Sasaki but, true to his recent luck, Murray has been forced to withdraw as a result of a fractured hip. Into his place steps London Shootfighters stable mate Alex "Reidernator" Reid.

A number of other changes to the card have been made, including the withdrawal of UFC referee Herb Dean due to injury.

Let's take a closer look at the new card, shall we?

Mark Weir vs. Sol Gilbert

The new main event of Cage Rage 12 promises the sort of fist-swinging affair that the relatively unsophisticated London crowd can really sink their teeth into. Mark "The Wizard" Weir and Sol "Zero Tolerance" Gilbert are both well-rounded MMA fighters, but both of them favor the striking game. This is an all-England clash that really has the potential to be fight of the night.

Having lost his last four fights, Weir (14-9) really needs a win. The problem is that, despite having what seems to be a very well rounded skill set, Weir is often one-dimensional in his execution. The Englishman is extremely dangerous in the early part of the round, when he tends to come out like an explosion, throwing the sort of dangerous, rapid strikes that caused him to knockout Eugene Jackson in 10 seconds back in 2002.

Of late, Weir has been a bit found out — he's vulnerable to being smothered by good wrestlers (like "Gladiator" Santos and Matt Lindland) and his chin is a potential worry (as proved by the losses to Rivera and Stout). He will also turn 38 this year. Is age going to be a factor for the "Wizard"?

Sol "Zero Tolerance" Gilbert (6-2-1) is one of the brightest British hopes. Tough, gritty and aggressive, Gilbert's rise was derailed by his spectacular knockout loss to Curtis Stout. Up until the big punch landed, I thought Gilbert was doing well, neutralizing the American on the ground and beating him on his feet.

Much as I like Weir, I just don't fancy him for this match. I think Gilbert's too young, too aggressive and too good for him. This will be a great match but I'm thinking that Gilbert will have learned from his mistake against Stout and Weir is not going to catch him with his hands down. Gilbert will gut out the first round and take the stoppage victory late in the second as Weir starts to fade.

Antonio Silva vs. Rafael Carino

Twenty-three-year-old Antonio Silva (2-0) is gigantic. Seriously, he's like a million feet tall and his hands are bigger than my head. Well, he's around 6'4, 300 pounds, anyway. And the scariest thing about him is that he's very, very good.

Silva used to train at the Wolfslair Gym in Liverpool, but he has recently returned to his native Brazil, and now trains with the BTT camp in Rio de Janeiro. "Pezao" (Bigfoot), as he is now called, earned his shot at Cage Rage by murdering Georgian wrestler Tengiz Tedoradze at UKMMAC 10 and brutalizing Frenchman Marcus Tchinda at CageWarriors.

Rafael "Earthquake" Carino (1-0-1) steps in to replace Silva’s previous opponent — the seriously oversized Ebenezer Fontes Braga. Carino is another big man — 6'8, 245 pounds — with a background in BJJ. Carino made his pro MMA debut at UFC 9, way back in 1996. He waited seven years before fighting again (a draw against Walter Farias in Shooto Brazil in 2003) and has not fought since.

I don't know much about Carino but he's aging and I've seen "Pezao" in action. Silva is not the lumbering giant usually associated with men of his size. He's quick, he's technical, he's skilled and he's dangerous. The only question mark over Silva's game is his stamina. He's a big man and nobody's ever seen him go past a round in pro MMA. That said I couldn’t imagine that either the Wolfslair or BTT would let him step into the cage unprepared.

Carino may be good but it's impossible to pick against the youngster. I'm going to say that Silva will take the TKO victory late in the first round.

Alex Reid vs. Kyosuke Sasaki

Alex "Reidernator" Reid (6-2) is a man looking for redemption. Like Sol Gilbert, Reid was a man with a big future ahead of him, but the loss against Rivera has put things into perspective. Reid was dominated by the American and he'll have returned to the gym determined to put things right.

Kyosuke Sasaki (3-5-3) is a middleweight out of the U-File camp in Japan. Despite having made his debut in 2001, the wrestler's record is unimpressive except in the sense that he has never been stopped, with all his losses coming via decision. Although Sasaki has faced some good fighters (his last loss being to the tough Jutaro Nakao) in a number of promotions (including PRIDE, DEEP and RINGS), there is nothing about him to suggest that he is anything out of the ordinary.

Despite having some solid ground skills and some good submission victories, Reid is a kickboxer first and foremost and in this bout the 5'11 Englishman will be enjoying a decent height advantage over his 5'7 Japanese foe. Lee Murray would have knocked the durable Japanese fighter out but I don't think Reid is quite at Murray's level. He'll take the victory but it will come via decision.

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