Preview: UFC Fight Night 226 ‘Gane vs. Spivak’

After a successful debut in Paris in 2022, the Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday will return to the French capital with UFC Fight Night 226—a fun but top-heavy card. As was the case a year ago, the main event sees Ciryl Gane attempting to rebound from a disappointing loss, this time against Moldovan wrestler Sergey Spivak in an important fight for both men. The co-headliner is the other clear gem of the card, as former strawweight champ Rose Namajunas makes an unexpected move up to flyweight and gets thrown into the fire against top contender Manon Fiorot. Other than that, there is the expected focus on French talent in some well-matched fights that should be buoyed by a passionate crowd.

Now to the UFC Fight Night “Gane vs. Spivak” preview:

Heavyweights

#2 HW | Ciryl Gane (11-2, 8-2 UFC) vs. #7 HW | Sergey Spivak (16-3, 7-3 UFC)

ODDS: Gane (-166), Spivak (+140)

Gane was a prospect to watch immediately upon making his professional debut in 2018, and it took all of three fights in less than 10 months for “Bon Gamin” to mark himself ready for the big time. His combination of size, speed and fluid striking left his opposition flummoxed with little in the way of answers. Gane actually managed to pick up the pace upon making it to the UFC, with three wins over the last five months of 2019, none of which saw him get tested. Major health issues then kept Gane out of action for roughly a year, but his return saw him continue to run through opposition on quick turnarounds while looking like the future of the heavyweight division. The fights were not always exciting, but Junior dos Santos, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Alexander Volkov and Derrick Lewis all failed to get much done against Gane, who established himself as Francis Ngannou’s next challenger with his win over the aforementioned Lewis. The Ngannou fight was where Gane was finally forced to answer some questions himself, and not all of those answers were positive. Everything went fine on the feet, but the back half of the bout was a surprisingly wrestling-heavy affair that exposed Gane’s poor decision making on the mat, despite Ngannou not being a standout grappler. However, with Ngannou on the contractual outs with the UFC, Gane still figured to be back in the title picture sooner rather than later; and indeed, after headlining the UFC’s debut in Paris with an entertaining victory over Tai Tuivasa, Gane was tabbed to face the returning Jon Jones for the vacant belt. It figured to be an interesting fight, particularly given how Jones had pivoted away from his wrestling in recent years, but things went about as poorly as possible for Gane. Jones rediscovered some of his old magic and leaned once again on his wrestling chops, as Gane looked fairly terrible on the ground before quickly getting submitted. Gane is still just 33 years old with a rare level of fluidity on the feet for a heavyweight, so it is unlikely that he will slide too much down the ranks in the next few years, even despite his now-obvious flaws. The good news? Heavyweight is still not a wrestler’s division, so there are only a few potential opponents who could bring those issues to the forefront. The bad news? Gane’s opponent in this return to Paris is one of those few fighters.

Moldova’s Spivak was an interesting prospect prior to his UFC debut in 2019, but a 50-second knockout loss to Walt Harris in his first trip to the Octagon raised some worries that “The Polar Bear” could not get to his wrestling against better athletes. That was likely the thought behind Spivak’s second UFC bout, where he was seemingly brought into Australia to lose to a skidding Tuivasa, but Spivak likely saved his UFC career with a big upset win, showing that getting him in trouble on the feet was not necessarily a guarantee. Spivak has found himself out of his depth on the feet in the last few years, with his 2021 loss to Tom Aspinall going south particularly quickly. However, Spivak has taken advantage of the lack of wrestling present at heavyweight in impressive fashion. Given that Spivak is not the largest heavyweight around, it has been a feather in his cap that he has been able to throw around massive opponents like Lewis and Greg Hardy. Add in that Spivak has some grappling in his back pocket, and that makes him particularly prone to pulling off some upsets. It is not enough for opponents to simply survive and outlast Spivak since he has weapons that can actually end the fight. That also makes this bout particularly fascinating even beyond the clear dynamic. Spivak will get chewed up for as long as this fight remains standing, but he can greatly swing the action in his favor as soon as he gets his hands on Gane. The main shock would be if this fight went any length of time, and while Gane could just score a quick knockout, the read is that Spivak has cut enough of the fat out of his game that he will be able to secure a takedown sooner rather than later and find a finish from there. The pick is Spivak via first-round submission.

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Gane vs. Spivak
Fiorot vs. Namajunas
St. Denis vs. Moises
Oezdemir vs. Guskov
Gomis vs. Ghemmouri
The Prelims