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Light Heavyweights

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (26-11-1) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (23-9)
Odds: Rua (-185), Nogueira (+160)

Sure. When Rua and Nogueira first clashed, the result was one of the best fights of 2005 and a bout that went down on the shortlist of best bouts in Pride Fighting Championships history. Then the UFC decided to revisit the pairing a decade later at UFC 190 -- it seemed a bit unnecessary at the time, but given that it was a big card in front of the Brazilian faithful and both men were nearing the end of their career, it was as good of an idea as any. And now, there's somehow going to be a trilogy fight five years later. Rua looks to sweep the trilogy here, which would be the latest victory in a surprisingly strong run since their second bout. When the UFC absorbed Pride back in 2007, Rua rightfully came into the promotion with the rep as the best light heavyweight in the world -- that win over Nogueira was part of a 2005 for Rua that still stands as one of the best calendar years in mixed martial arts history. Rua overcame some roadblocks -- namely a stunning debut loss to Forrest Griffin and some bad judging in his first title bout against Lyoto Machida -- to eventually unseat Machida and claim light heavyweight gold, and despite dropping his title in short order to Jon Jones, he had a few more impressive performances in his next handful of bouts. But by the second Nogueira fight in 2015, it looked like the wheels had firmly fallen off for Rua; a knockout win over James Te Huna was his only victory in his last five bouts, and he was coming off brutal finishes at the hands of Dan Henderson and Ovince St. Preux. Since beating Nogueira the second time, Rua's still obviously a shell of his former self, but none of his opponents -- save for Anthony Smith -- have really been able to capitalize on that. Rua will take a beating early, but except for Smith, nobody's actually gotten Rua out of there, and he's been consistently able to fight back for a victory, or a split draw in the case of his last bout against Paul Craig. And in a thin light heavyweight division, that's still enough to make Rua a going concern, meaning a victory here over Nogueira may have some actual value looking forward.

Nogueira's made it clear that this will be his retirement fight, and the timing's about right, even if he can still probably cause more problems than expected. He'll always be in his bigger brother's shadow, but Lil Nog has put together a solid campaign of his own; he was a standout in Pride, and wins over Tito Ortiz and Rashad Evans put him in the title picture circa 2013. But Anthony Johnson firmly extinguished any hopes of Nogueira's title contention, and since then he's been relatively inactive. On the few occasions that Nogueira has made it to the cage since the second Rua fight, he's looked quite rickety, but still has enough hand speed to cause uncomfortable strikers some issues; Patrick Cummins couldn't last a round, and Nogueira memorably blasted Sam Alvey during their 2018 bout. But losses to Ryan Bader and Ryan Spann were just as one-sided and quite depressing, so at 44 years-old, this is as good a time as any to call it a career.

It's hard to have much faith in either fighter -- and has been for years -- but it's hard not to favor Rua here. Rua gets hit a ton at this point, so there's a chance that Nogueira can put him away in quick and brutal fashion, but Rua's also shown the willingness to turn things into a grind as needed in his last few bouts. Nogueira should be able to hold his own there, but Rua, somehow, is probably still the stronger and sprier athlete, so the pick is for Rua to win via decision in an ugly affair.

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