Preview: UFC 215 ‘Nunes vs. Shevchenko 2’

Light Heavyweights

Ilir Latifi (12-5) vs. Tyson Pedro (6-0)

THE MATCHUP: Above and beyond the latest USADA test failure for the perpetually reckless Jon Jones, the light heavyweight division needs a shot in the arm. If Daniel Cormier winds up being given back the UFC light heavyweight title and Jones is suspended for two years or more, we need some fresh challengers once we get beyond Cormier-Alexander Gustafsson 2. Will Pedro, who turns 26 on Sept. 17, be a formative part of this division’s future? Latifi figures to provide us with some clarity.

Pedro will enjoy a six-inch reach advantage over the beefy Latifi and an alleged five-inch height advantage, according to official UFC numbers; however, it is absurd to believe Latifi is actually 5-foot-10. Beyond the comparative physical advantages, it is clear that Pedro can hit hard standing. Yet despite his size and strength, he is at his best while pounding from top position, opening up guard passes and finishing via submission. With just six pro fights in less than four years, the Australian is still very raw, but his unique blend of athletic traits and stylistic proclivities are not just entertaining but massively intriguing. However, there is cause for concern. Pedro’s entire career has lasted less than 18 minutes; he has never left the first round; he has remarkably porous striking defense at this point; and the best fighter he has beaten is the also-raw Khalil Rountree, who completely gassed out in four minutes.

Latifi has a comical and slightly freakish physique, and given the infamous picture of him riding a horse shirtless on the beach like a romance novel cover, perhaps a comical and slightly freakish demeanor. Nonetheless, “The Sledgehammer” has many tools at his disposal that can give us some answers about Pedro’s potential and future or lead him to victory. It may not suit the squattier man with such a reach disparity to throw a lot of kicks, but despite his frame, Latifi possesses thumping leg kicks and the dexterity to bring the shin upstairs. He is not fast per se but covers the middle range quickly behind massive punches, nearly all of which possess one-hitter-quitter power. Of course, his bread and butter is wrestling as a former Swedish national team member. He has a powerful double-leg, can slam and suplex you in close quarters and works a mean front headlock.

While Latifi should be able to hit Pedro, back him up to the fence and utilize his powerhouse wrestling, moving into clinch range is still a worry for him, as he has an awful habit of ducking straight down into knees. It has gotten him knocked out twice in his career, first by Tatsuya Mizuno in 2009 and again 12 months ago when he head butted Ryan Bader’s kneecap while he was throwing a head kick. If Latifi gets clobbered by the Aussie, it will happen as he is closing the distance or changing levels.

THE ODDS: Pedro (-140), Latifi (+120)

THE PICK: Latifi is a manageable match for the wet-behind-the-ears Pedro, but that is contingent on him hitting and hurting the Swede while staving off his wrestling consistently. Pedro has enjoyed most of his standing success in the Octagon from the clinch, where Latifi will want to be anyhow. Training consistently with Gustafsson, Jimi Manuwa and K-1 veteran Gokhan Saki at the Allstars Training Center, Latifi is routinely working with tall, rangy, powerful and infinitely more experienced strikers. I would love to be wrong and feel like a fool for not having more faith in a young, developing fighter, but given his defensive liabilities and noteworthy lack of cage time, the safe bet is that Pedro loses a decision to Latifi that hopefully accelerates his maturation process. Win or lose, there is much to be excited about involving Pedro, given his upside and lack of fresh faces at 205 pounds.

Next Fight » Melendez vs. Stephens