Preview: UFC 267 ‘Blachowicz vs. Teixeira’

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Lightweights

#5 LW | Islam Makhachev (20-1, 9-1 UFC) vs. #6 LW | Dan Hooker (21-10, 11-6 UFC)

ODDS: Makhachev (-600), Hooker (+450)

It is nice to see Makhachev finally moving up the lightweight ladder in earnest. When Makhachev made his UFC debut in 2015, he figured to follow in the footsteps of longtime friend and training partner Khabib Nurmagomedov. Makhachev takes much the same approach to his fights, though without the elite athleticism that made the former lightweight champion one of the best fighters of all-time. Still, Makhachev was expected to hit the ground running in the UFC, which made it a shock when he suffered a quick knockout loss against Adriano Martins in just his second Octagon assignment. That set Makhachev back quite a bit, as even beyond the result itself, it was seemingly enough for the UFC to make Makhachev slowly work his way back up the card—a process that took longer than expected. Beyond his matchmaking mostly trading water, long periods of inactivity also meant it took a while for Makhachev to get a winning streak going. However, Makhachev’s 2019 campaign saw win some prominent fights over Arman Tsarukyan and Davi Ramos, and after missing all of 2020, it appears 2021 is the year where he makes his long-awaited march towards title contention. Wins over Drew Dober and Thiago Moises, the latter in a headlining affair, represent Makhachev’s biggest victories to date and came without much drama. Essentially, Makhachev has now confirmed he is a championship-level fighter who just needs the resume to mark himself as a true contender. To that end, he gets a crucial fight here against Hooker.

Hooker steps in after the latest attempt to book Makhachev-Rafael dos Anjos fell apart and does so under relatively insane circumstances, taking this fight just five weeks after a win over Nasrat Haqparast. That victory was a nice showing for Hooker. Beyond managing to get a win after travel issues led to his arriving late to the United States, “The Hangman” also broke a two-fight losing streak by reminding everyone just how hard he is to beat. Hooker’s success in the UFC was not a guarantee. He would have made it to the promotion eventually, but his 2014 signing mostly felt like an attempt to add some local flavor to a card in his native New Zealand. From there, Hooker launched a relatively middling featherweight campaign before moving up to lightweight, at which point a once relatively aimless approach started to click into place. Hooker is able to leverage his long frame into either pressuring or picking apart his opponents as necessary, even if he can be taken apart by better athletes. Hooker’s run up the lightweight ladder was stalled by an absolute beating at the hands of Edson Barboza, and his recent losses saw him drop a war to Dustin Poirier and get run over by Michael Chandler. However, Hooker righted the ship against Haqparast, which served as a reminder that it takes more than just speed and athleticism to beat the Kiwi, who had everything clicking and won the fight handily as a result. With the current quarantining situation in New Zealand leaving Hooker without a way home in the short term, he has decided to try and build on that momentum. It is certainly worth a shot.

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This is definitely Makhachev’s most difficult test to date, but Hooker still figures to face an uphill battle. There is always the chance that the Russian can be derailed, but he has done well to at least shore up the holes that Martins managed to exploit in his lone professional setback. Makhachev is not anywhere near as wild a striker as the one who got knocked out with a devastating counter. Beyond that, there just is not a lot to exploit in Makhachev’s game. He can be slowed down, but it is basically up to opponents to neutralize his wrestling or get drowned on route to a loss. Hooker can certainly make something happen between his reach and the fact that he is Makhachev’s best opponent yet, but it would have to be a low-percentage strike. Hooker is at his best when exploiting the gaps in his opponent’s technical game, and there just is not much to take advantage of in this case. This may be more of a struggle than the wins over Dober and Moises, but it looks like another bout where Makhachev can dictate the terms, particularly with Hooker turning around so quickly from a decision win. The pick is Makhachev via decision.

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