Preview: UFC 186 ‘Johnson vs. Horiguchi’

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LIGHTWEIGHTS

John Makdessi (12-3, 5-3 UFC) vs. Shane Campbell (11-2, 0-0 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Makdessi returns from an injury layoff of more than a year against late-notice replacement “Shaolin” Campbell in what should be a matchup of flashy strikers. Makdessi had won three straight prior to dropping a contentious decision to Alan Patrick Silva Alves in his last outing, while Campbell has beaten solid competition on the Canadian regional scene in addition to a long career as a kickboxer and muay Thai competitor.

Makdessi is a pure striker with a background in traditional martial arts. His crisp jab and front leg side, hook and round kicks form the basis of his game. When he can land them effectively, the rest of his arsenal -- spinning kicks, powerful right crosses and a vicious left hook -- open up. When he cannot constantly touch with strikes from his lead hand and leg, however, he struggles to find the range and land consistent volume. With that said, Makdessi is one of the division’s better strikers. He is exceedingly hard to hit cleanly, especially to the head, and can operate equally moving forward and off his back foot. His constant jab often draws out a response, which he can then counter with a combination or another crisp back-stepping jab. That is essentially Makdessi’s entire game. He defends takedowns well and can scramble if taken down, but he is not much of a clinch fighter and has never successfully completed a takedown in the UFC.

Campbell has some legitimate kickboxing wins on his resume, and it shows in his game. While he is not a great athlete, he is rangy and highly skilled, with a strong understanding of the intangibles -- range, timing and rhythm -- that only decades of experience as a striker can impart. He works from both stances and strings together slick punch-kick combinations at all levels, working at a quick pace and mixing in slashing low kicks to fill up the space between them. He does an excellent job of punching his way into the clinch, where he throws hard knees and elbows and can hit the occasional trip or throw. He is a better defensive wrestler and grappler than you would expect and generally does a good job of keeping himself standing. In all phases, Campbell shows outstanding killer instinct and works at a quick, attritive pace.

THE PICK: If Makdessi allows this to take place as a pure striking matchup, he will soon find himself in real trouble. He is the better athlete, to be sure, and has a flashier repertoire, but Campbell is a technical and durable kickboxer with boatloads of experience and a huge edge in the clinch. I think that is exactly what will happen here, and while the short camp is a concern, the pick is Campbell by decision.

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