UFC 157 ‘Rousey vs. Carmouche’ Preview

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Welterweights

Josh Koscheck (17-6, 15-6 UFC) vs. Robbie Lawler (19-9, 4-3 UFC)

The Matchup: Lawler returns to 170 pounds for the first time since 2004, when he lost to Nick Diaz at UFC 47. “Ruthless” was up-and-down during his Strikeforce tenure, scoring a few memorable knockouts while struggling against more wrestling-minded foes. Lawler might not contend for a title in his second stop in the UFC, but his penchant for the spectacular makes him a welcome addition to the roster.

Koscheck, meanwhile, has not fought since May, with a bulging disc in his back forcing him out of a proposed matchup against Jake Ellenberger on the ill-fated UFC 151 card. It has been more than two years since “Kos” came up short in his bid for the welterweight crown against Georges St. Pierre, and he will need to make a quick recovery to gain ground in a competitive division. He tends to find himself in grinding affairs, as he recently went 1-1 against fellow wrestlers Mike Pierce and Johny Hendricks, with both contests going the split decision route. Koscheck was able to absorb some solid left hooks and right uppercuts in a loss to the heavy-handed Hendricks, which bodes well for him against a dangerous knockout artist like Lawler.

A southpaw with 11 first-round stoppages to his credit, Lawler will need to bait Koscheck into a standup battle. He times his punches well, and his lead right hook and overhand left are both capable of ending a fight at a moment’s notice. Koscheck has a strong overhand right himself but he needs plenty of room to unload, and his technique can leave him vulnerable to counters. Couple that with the fact that the former American Kickboxing Academy member rarely throws more than one punch at a time, and it is clear that he would be wise to eliminate the risk in this bout by returning to his wrestling roots.

Lawler has good upper body strength and a decent sprawl, but that will not be enough to combat the shot of a former NCAA wrestling champion. Assuming that the recent back ailment has not robbed Koscheck of his athleticism, the former Edinboro University standout should be able to ground Lawler repeatedly.

The Pick: The longer the fight goes, the worse it looks for Lawler. Koscheck plays the percentages and grinds out a decision.

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