Preview: ‘The Ultimate Fighter’ 27 Finale

Women’s Flyweights
Roxanne Modafferi (21-14) vs. Barb Honchak (10-3)
Odds: Honchak (-175), Modafferi (+155)

Both Modafferi and Honchak are returning for the first time since closely contested defeats at December’s TUF 26 Finale. “The Happy Warrior” vied for the inaugural flyweight crown, but came up just short against Nicco Montano. Honchak dropped a razor-thin decision to castmate Lauren Murphy.

Syndicate MMA’s Modafferi has done more with less athleticism than just about anyone in MMA. She is a very cerebral fighter who has clearly worked on and internalized finer details of the sport, particularly striking, that other fighters seem much less preoccupied with. Modafferi moves forward, her guard high, firing punch-kick combinations. She then nearly always cuts back out at an angle to avoid the counter. She can switch stances, kick with either leg to the lower half of her opponent, and keeps her head and feet moving. The John Wood student even has some solid pop in her right hand if she sits down on it, usually after flashing a blinding jab. But Modafferi is not a big hitter and can get flustered when dealing with pressuring or heavy-handed opponents. To her credit, she displays a good sense of urgency about getting herself back out to open space. But her footwork can break down in doing so, as she turns away and runs back to space. Nevertheless, Modafferi keeps plugging away, in fights as well as in her career, undeterred by adversity, embracing the underdog role and the workmanlike approach she needs to beat other high-level fighters.

The judo and BJJ brown belt is most comfortable and dangerous on the mat. She is a passable wrestler, most effective tripping opponents to the floor from the clinch, though she can hit nice reactive doubles at times too. Once the fight is in her world, Modafferi becomes much more aggressive and finish-oriented. She is very adept at advancing, and if she gets to a dominant position, she will rain down strikes, her elbows being a particularly and surprisingly devastating weapon. It was these elbows that saw her cut her way easily to the semis on TUF, before running into Sijara Eubanks.

Her lack of athleticism means she isn’t a great scrambler, though her technique can win out against less skilled opposition. But opponents are sometimes able to explode out of precarious positions, especially by turning over into her guard when she has their back. If Modafferi finds herself on the bottom, she stays aggressive with sweep and submission attempts. Her armbar is another potent tool in her arsenal.

Modafferi is 35, but her opponent is even older at 38. Honchak is a former Invicta FC champion who was semi-retired by the end of 2014, declining to continue to defend her belt until she was stripped. She came back for the “A New World Champion” season of TUF, a UFC belt -- or at least a contract -- enough incentive to get back into fighting full-time. She, too, cut a path to the semifinals with relative ease, pounding out the green Gillian Robertson before grinding out Rachael Ostovich. The Miletich Fighting Systems product enjoyed wrestling and physicality advantages inside in those fights, but like the rest of the field, found herself on the receiving end of Montano’s relentless wall-and-maul. Against Murphy, she lost a few key positional battles and was slightly outpointed on the feet despite hurting “Lucky” in round two and nearly submitting her twice in round three.

Honchak is similarly well-rounded but her game isn’t as technically deep as Modafferi’s. She relies more on her physicality to bully women in the clinch and on the mat and a hard right hand in standup exchanges. She can fight going forward -- she primarily pressured on TUF -- or backwards, sitting back and countering the more active Murphy. Honchak is a decent boxer who can put her punches together, but she sometimes de-commits part-way through a combination. This can rob her of her natural power. She cuts angles and can hit same-time counters well, but generally doesn’t move her head enough to avoid the hands of savvy punchers. She also doesn’t kick all that much, making her a capable but limited striker.

This fight will be close and will pit Modafferi’s relentless workrate against Honchak’s superior strength and athleticism. Against fighters she cannot run circles around technically or soundly outwrestle, “The Happy Warrior” will always struggle to impose herself. She may be able to stay on her bike and outpoint Honchak with a steady diet of punches and kicks. But she will ultimately look to engage in the clinch to try to redirect the fight to the mat. This will give Honchak opportunities to beat up Modafferi with knees and bull her way into top position. Modafferi will keep it interesting throughout, but Honchak gets the better of her by decision.

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