Preview: UFC on ESPN 33 ‘Blaydes vs. Daukaus’

Heavyweights

NR | Ilir Latifi (15-8, 7-6 UFC) vs. NR | Alexey Oleynik (59-16-1, 8-7 UFC)

ODDS: Latifi (-190), Oleynik (+160)

Oleynik was a fun addition when the UFC picked him up in 2014. Already nearly two decades into his career, “The Boa Constrictor” figured to bring a nice change of pace to the proceedings with his array of unorthodox chokes and neck cranks. However, between Oleynik’s age and the seemingly low-percentage nature of his approach, he was not expected to be much more than a curiosity, particularly after a massive knee injury in 2015 obviously slowed him down. As it turns out, Oleynik was skilled enough—or the heavyweight division was flawed enough—for him to make some hay, stringing together enough wins to make him a viable UFC Fight Night headliner and fringe title contender. Oleynik never got that one win to put him into true contention, however, and it does look like age might finally be catching up with him. His 2021 campaign saw him suffer losses to Chris Daukaus and Sergey Spivak and mostly look ineffective, suggesting at the very least that a new generation of talent has enough youth and fight IQ to pass the test that Oleynik provides. However, this time around, Oleynik takes on someone closer to his old age in Latifi, who is also in a crucial late-career spot. The Swede made his UFC debut under unorthodox circumstances back in 2013, stepping in on days’ notice for teammate Alexander Gustafsson to headline a card in Sweden against Gegard Mousasi, then carved out a niche for himself as a fun mid-tier light heavyweight. Like Oleynik, Latifi’s approach has been something that could only work in the heavier weight classes. A bowling ball of a man, Latifi gets by on either massive single power punches or just by relying on his own physical strength in the clinch. After a 2019 loss to Volkan Oezdemir, Latifi decided to move up to heavyweight for a move that had some potential, but it has not worked out to an overwhelming level of success. Latifi might not have the requisite level of heavyweight durability, and whether it is age or caution, he has adopted an even slower-paced style that functions almost entirely due to his wrestling game. He lost an extremely low-output grind to Derrick Lewis but did manage to ride that approach to a controversial decision win over Tanner Boser in June. It remains unclear how that will fare here. This is a strange fight. Latifi will surely at some point put himself in position to fall victim to one of Oleynik’s exotic submissions, but the Swede may have the right combination of strength and stockiness to prevent the finish, especially as Oleynik’s effectiveness continues to diminish. Things are not any easier to call on the feet. Oleynik is wild enough with his pressure that Latifi could turn his lights out with one big counter, but Latifi’s output has been so low since his move up to heavyweight that it is hard to bet on him bracing himself enough to actually throw. Then there is the fact that without an early finish neither man has much in the way of cardio. For as much of Oleynik’s recent career has been dependent on the early stoppage, he might actually have the cardio advantage in this pairing. While both men quickly get exhausted, Oleynik has at least shown the tendency to keep fighting—albeit sloppily—through exhaustion. It is hard to trust either man, which means this may actually go on for 15 sweaty minutes. Latifi is likely to be the one in the more dominant positions, so that means he gets the nod, ugly as it may be. The pick is Latifi via decision.

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