Preview: UFC on ESPN 4 ‘Dos Anjos vs. Edwards’

Lightweights

Alexander Hernandez (10-2) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (23-6)

ODDS: Hernandez (-170), Trinaldo (+150)

It sure has been a rollercoaster ride for Hernandez over the last year and a half. Not a ton was expected of the Texan when he got the call as a late replacement in March 2018, but after wrecking Beneil Dariush in under a minute and taking a relentless decision win over Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Hernandez ended the year as one of the lightweight division’s brightest prospects. He received the requisite matchmaking come 2019, landing a matchup with Donald Cerrone in a featured spot in January, but that opportunity wound up serving as a wake-up call, both in terms of Hernandez’s weaknesses and Cerrone’s talent back down at 155 pounds. Hernandez is certainly relentless in his pressure, which allowed him to shock Dariush and wear out Aubin-Mercier, but Cerrone managed to take advantage of his aggression and hit him hard, eventually ending their encounter in the second round. Hernandez still has a bright future ahead of him, but in the short term, he could certainly use a win to regain his lost momentum. A tough fight here against Trinaldo certainly does him no favors.

Trinaldo is probably the most successful graduate of the first season of “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil,” which is an impressive upset. Trinaldo was certainly well-regarded as a prospect, but he was already well into his 30s during his time on the cast, and his style in his early UFC career seemed to mostly consist of trying to squeeze off his opponent’s head with an arm-triangle. That gave “Massaranduba” all the makings of a Brazilian cult favorite and little else, but instead, Trinaldo wound up being a prime example of the benefits of becoming a full-time fighter. Getting UFC money allowed Trinaldo to spend more time in the gym, and he soon developed a shockingly effective counterstriking game, which, when combined with his physical strength, gave him the chops to put together a seven-fight winning streak and become a growing concern at 155 pounds. Trinaldo has plateaued a bit in recent years due to losses against Kevin Lee and James Vick, but at the same time, there is not a ton of evidence that the Brazilian is slowing down, even as he turns 40. Another huge run probably is not the cards, but Trinaldo has already beaten the odds to get this far, so no one knows where a win here might lead.

Like a lot of fights on this card, this comes down to how one fighter’s pressure is going to play against a tough opponent, but this might be the hardest pick of them all. Hernandez is quite relentless, but despite how quickly he ended things against Dariush, he does not seem to be much of a one-hitter quitter, instead using his pressure to pursue takedowns and wear out his opponents. That might be difficult to pull off against Trinaldo. The Brazilian may not be the best defensive wrestler, but he is still quite strong for the lightweight division and has made a name off of hitting big counters and scaring off his opponents. Even if Hernandez gets the fight he wants, he might just be running headfirst into a wall, as Trinaldo’s physical strength stifles everything that he attempts. Even though Trinaldo’s gas tank has been one of his improvements throughout the years, the bet is still that Hernandez is dogged enough to tire him out on defense before exhausting himself. Hernandez should be able to separate himself as the fight goes on and stay quick enough to prevent Trinaldo from reacting with something dangerous. The pick is Hernandez via decision.

Next Fight » Arlovski vs. Rothwell