Boxing Opinion: Softball? Not on ESPN

There are few fights in boxing where the stakes are high, violence is expected and there is no true favorite to win. This weekend’s showdown between undefeated Leo Santa Cruz and Abner Mares is that kind of fight.

It also helps that the fight is on free TV as part of Premier Boxing Champions on ESPN.

The highly anticipated showdown at Staples Center in Los Angeles, between a pair of Mexican fighters who both reside in Southern California and have been on a collision course for years, is the type of thing from which rival-ries are made. In an era of fighters facing a number of obstacles before facing the best opponent, it is refreshing to see a fight of this magnitude take place with all of the pieces properly falling into place.

In one corner is Cruz, “El Terremoto” (“The Earthquake”), known for his ridiculous volume punching; he cur-rently leads all active boxers at 81 per round. Santa Cruz also leads in average total landed punches per round at 32. With that kind of output, action is expected whenever Santa Cruz steps into a boxing ring. With a record of 30-0-1 (17 KOs), Santa Cruz will be facing his toughest test to date in Mares. Also, considering that this will be Santa Cruz’s second fight at the 126-pound limit, it will be interesting how he handles the size difference.

In the other corner is former three-division world champion Mares. Although he is not on the level of his oppo-nent, Mares (29-1-1, 15 KOs) is no slouch when it comes to volume; he throws 59 punches per round (the Com-puBox average is 57) and lands 21. But it can be argued that Mares lands with more authority than Santa Cruz, and that could be telling as Santa Cruz is jumping up a weight class to face Mares.

For all the positives that Santa Cruz possesses, Mares offers what his opponent does not: experience. Santa Cruz will be challenging in a weight class where Mares is a bit more comfortable, having gone to war with quality fighters like Joseph Agbeko, Vic Darchinyan and Daniel Ponce de Leon. However, what Mares has and Santa Cruz does not is a blemish on his professional record.

In August 2013, Mares came in as the favorite against Jhonny Gonzalez and ended up being stopped in the first round by the seasoned veteran. Mares called the loss a wake-up call, but it was surely viewed as a chink in the Mexican’s armor. Santa Cruz has yet to experience anything like that and will surely look to duplicate the result in front of a rowdy contingent at Staples Center.

Also interesting is the amount of water these two have been treading in recent fights. Through no fault of their own, the competition has been less than stellar and perhaps has diminished the hype surrounding the fight to a certain extent. Santa Cruz’s portfolio has been less of a “who’s who” and more of a “who’s that?” over the past couple of years. Jose Cayetano, Jesus Ruiz and Manuel Roman aren’t the guys who spark a fickle boxing fan to say, “We want more.” Mares has been through the same cycle of soft opposition ever since he lost to Gonzalez. Although he looked good against Jonathan Oquendo, his fights with Jose Ramirez and Arturo Santos Reyes left much to be desired as the in-ring action was less than stellar.

Nevertheless, the softballs thrown are no longer, and now these two will face one another. What makes this fight special is the contrasting styles that are expected to produce fireworks. The “styles make fights” adage applies here, as both Mares and Santa Cruz are fighters who come forward and commit to the body. Both are far from defensive wizards, so fans of punches connecting can expect to see their fair share of leather bouncing off the skulls of these two combatants.

More important than the style is the heart that these two fighters possess. Their Mexican pride makes both fight-ers unwilling to back down. Even if one of them is hurt, don’t expect this to turn into a chess match. It’s likely going to be a version of Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em Robots unless one of them cruelly decides to deploy a defensive strategy that neither fighter has utilized over the course of their careers.

Who’s going to win? This is a tough one to pick. Although Mares has the experience advantage, one has to be curious about how he’ll fare against a fighter like Santa Cruz. The knockout loss to Gonzalez was telling, but the way Mares has looked in his fights since is the real concern. He took a little bit too much punishment against Santos Reyes in his last fight, but anyone who saw him noticed that he was suffering from an illness prior to the fight. Regardless, Mares failed to impress.

After switching from longtime trainer Clemente Medina to Virgil Hunter and back to Medina, there may be a bit of an identity crisis going on with Mares. Neither trainer has transformed Mares and there is a curiosity as to whether Mares’ decision to go back and forth between trainers is indicative of some lingering self-doubt after the knockout loss.

Meanwhile, Santa Cruz has looked like he’s been on cruise control the past couple of years as his fights haven’t been very exciting or competitive. He’s won handily against his last three opponents, but it was the same work-manlike performance each time. Santa Cruz does possess a two-inch height advantage and a narrow reach ad-vantage over Mares and is clearly the busier fighter. That should come into play as the fight progresses. One thing we haven’t seen out of “El Terremoto” is his conditioning being a detriment to his fighting style. That will likely be the biggest difference on Aug. 29.

Mares is going to have to hurt Santa Cruz early and make him think twice about launching his myriad of punch-es without concern for what is coming back. If he is unable to counter effectively, it will spell trouble. If the rounds are close, expect the judges to hand rounds to the busier fighter, which will likely be Santa Cruz. It will be interesting to see what Mares does to offset his opponent’s advances in the later rounds, but the edge leans toward Santa Cruz winning a closely contested but unanimous decision against Mares.

Andreas Hale is a content producer for Jay Z's LifeandTimes.com and editor-in-chief of PremierWuzHere.com, as well as a frequent Sherdog.com columnist. Check out his archive here.