The Bottom Line: About Those Retirements …

The ordering process for Ultimate Fighting Championship pay-per-views has changed: UFC 237 is only available on ESPN+ in the U.S.

Editor’s note: The views and opinions expressed below are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Sherdog.com, its affiliates and sponsors or its parent company, Evolve Media.

* * *
Over the first half of this year, a distinct trend has emerged when it comes to some of the sport’s biggest stars. It began in February, when the iconic Georges St. Pierre announced his retirement. His announcement was notable in that St. Pierre acknowledged he wasn’t completely disinterested in continuing to fight but that the Ultimate Fighting Championship wasn’t interested in the bout he was seeking against lightweight kingpin Khabib Nurmagomedov. The undefeated Nurmagomedov clearly read this as an implicit statement that St. Pierre was still open to that fight, and Nurmagomedov has proceeded to lobby for it publicly since.

A similar situation emerged in March, when Conor McGregor announced his retirement from the sport. Unlike St. Pierre, who might plausibly elect to stop fighting at age 37, the 30-year-old McGregor’s statement was the most superficial of negotiating ploys to try to boost his negotiating leverage while trying to reach a deal for his next fight. It was, in fact, a trick McGregor had used before in 2016. The UFC in response did not downplay McGregor’s retirement or express the organization’s resolve to ensure he would fight again. Instead, UFC President Dana White called McGregor’s bluff. He argued that it totally made sense that McGregor would retire and that if he were in McGregor’s position, he would retire, too. He congratulated McGregor on his career and said he looked forward to what the Irishman would do outside the Octagon, as if the whole thing was serious. White of course knew better and acknowledged McGregor would fight again just a couple of weeks later, but his public posturing sent a clear message to the former two-division champion.

Remarkably, that wasn’t it for dubious superstar retirement announcements made in the midst of contract negotiations in the first few months of 2019. Most recently, it was White announcing a major retirement to the public. After a long series of negotiations with Brock Lesnar to make a fight with Daniel Cormier, White announced that Lesnar would be retiring and proceeded to make Cormier-Stipe Miocic 2 instead. It’s uncertain whether Lesnar will fight again, but the World Wrestling Entertainment superstar has made it clear over the years that he’ll take a fight if the money is right.

The fact that this same basic pattern has repeated itself three times in such a short period of time with some of the biggest drawing cards to which the UFC has access is no accident. This is all tied to ESPN’s recent agreement to be the UFC’s exclusive pay-per-view distributor. That deal could have a transformative effect on the sport, in both good and bad ways. We’re seeing it in the McGregor and Lesnar situations that followed, and the UFC surely knew where things were headed when it negotiated with St. Pierre.

The UFC-ESPN pact guarantees pay-per-view revenue at the level it has been doing in recent years, and it does so through 2025. The UFC thus has much less pressure to put on the best cards that it can. If the UFC has a massive pay-per-view year, it still can benefit from those increases. However, like a frugal NFL or MLB team that can make a healthy profit thanks to revenue sharing whether it puts a competitive team on the field or not, the UFC can avoid spending big money on its top stars and still make money hand over fist thanks to guaranteed ESPN revenue.

That reality is why the situations with St. Pierre, McGregor and Lesnar have played out the way they have. Even if the UFC isn’t going to consistently play hardball with its top fighters moving forward, it is in a great position right now to take a hard-negotiating stance and try to improve its leverage with fighters over the coming years. The UFC has every incentive to pretend it is fine with letting the likes of St. Pierre and Lesnar walk away, even if in reality it is as devoted as ever to trying to get as many fights as possible with the biggest revenue generators in the sport.

For the good of the UFC, in particular, and MMA, in general, hopefully what is going on right now is more a ploy than a new way of doing business. Even if in the UFC can thrive financially without the biggest fights in the short-term, those massive events are the ones that fuel interest in the sport long-term. This has become particularly pronounced in recent years, as the biggest fights have grown bigger while the rank-and-file shows feel less impactful. Cutting corners on making the most expensive fights may seem sensible in the short-term, but it is foolhardy in the long-term.

It’s too early to draw broad conclusions about what the recent developments with McGregor, Lesnar and St. Pierre suggest for the future. It’s entirely plausible, if overall unlikely, that all three could still fight in the next year. However, the incentives associated with UFC matchmaking have changed, and that will unquestionably lead to a recalibration of negotiations between the promotion and its top talents.

The UFC may feel like it is in its strongest position ever when it comes to those negotiations. It can believably feign indifference when superstar fighters make lofty financial demands, and executives can shrug shoulders at the threat of major retirements. If, however, that feeling of negotiating strength leads to complacency when it comes to making sure the biggest fights get made, the UFC could find itself nickel and diming its way into diminished fan popularity and sporting relevance.

Todd Martin has written about mixed martial arts since 2002 for a variety of outlets, including CBSSports.com, SI.com, ESPN.com, the Los Angeles Times, MMApayout.com, Fight Magazine and Fighting Spirit Magazine. He has appeared on a number of radio stations, including ESPN affiliates in New York and Washington, D.C., and HDNet’s “Inside MMA” television show. In addition to his work at Sherdog.com, he does a weekly podcast with Wade Keller at PWTorch.com and blogs regularly at LaTimes.com. Todd received his BA from Vassar College in 2003 and JD from UCLA School of Law in 2007 and is a licensed attorney. He has covered UFC, Pride, Bellator, Affliction, IFL, WFA, Strikeforce, WEC and K-1 live events. He believes deeply in the power of MMA to heal the world and bring happiness to all of its people.