The Bottom Line: Cashing In

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Jorge Masvidal’s reputation and level of respect within the sport trailed his greater notoriety among MMA fans for years. He gave many of the best fighters in the sport tough battles, but he was almost always perceived as the B side in his fights. This was due in part to his bad luck with decisions. If all of his Ultimate Fighting Championship split decisions had gone the other way, he would have started his UFC career 13-1 with an 11-fight winning streak.

It seems odd to say now, but the even bigger issue for Masvidal was marketing. The man who reinvented himself with the swagger, the three piece and a soda and the BMF title was a rather nondescript veteran. If you asked a major MMA fan not long ago what they thought of first when it came to Masvidal, the top two answers might well have been that he was once a street fighter associated with “Kimbo Slice” and that he got choked out by a Toby Imada inverted triangle that went viral in the early days of Bellator MMA.

Those moments are distant memories now. Masvidal has grown into one of the sport’s biggest stars, to the point where his fight on Saturday represents one of the UFC’s rarest occurrences: a pay-per-view with neither a planned title fight nor a Conor McGregor fight. Masvidal is likely to be a massive crowd favorite as he guns for revenge against former friend Colby Covington in the UFC 272 headliner. It’s a fight that suits both men well. Covington has been playing the role of villain for years against far less popular opponents than Masvidal, and he’s likely to get the sort of passionate negative reaction he has long sought. Covington may not even have his core base of pro-Donald Trump supporters, as Masvidal has similarly voiced his support for the former president.

There’s a lot for Masvidal to like about UFC 272. Unfortunately for the proud Miami native, there is one big concern. He enters into a bout with a bitter rival with the distinct possibility that the notoriety/ability gap from earlier in his career may have swung in the opposite direction. He’s much more famous than he once was, but he might also have reached the point where he no longer can compete at the same level he once did.

There are arguments to be made against this suggestion. Masvidal is only three years older than Covington—hardly a monumental difference. Masvidal’s last two defeats were also to Kamaru Usman, likely the best pound-for-pound fighter in the sport and a man who beat Covington two times, as well. There’s reason for Masvidal’s fans and his friends at American Top Team to hope he will reestablish his form of 2019 against Covington.

With that said, there are many more reasons to believe that 2019 was the peak of Masvidal’s career. It has now been two and a half years since his last win, and he’s right in the age range where mixed martial artists most often drop off. Covington’s closer to four years younger than Masvidal than three given he just had his birthday, and 34-verus-37 is pretty much the largest three-year age gap in combat sports, far more consequential than 30-versus-33, let alone 25-versus-28. Covington also appears to be showing continued improvement. Even in defeats to Usman, he showed a much more potent striking game than he had a few years back.

Compounding the problem for Masvidal is mileage on the body. This was a man who was getting into fights from a young age, and he now has two and a half times more pro bouts than Covington. There’s also the grind of training, as Masvidal has been a pro for nearly 19 years. Masvidal has been remarkably durable, but that eventually runs out. Donald Cerrone is a telling example: He fought often over the course of a long career and continued to thrive into his mid-30s, but eventually, he hit a wall.

Most concerning for Masvidal is the way he was brutally knocked out against Usman. Even if getting knocked out in that manner for the first time was not an indication of his chin declining—that punch would have knocked out an elephant—it certainly won’t help his ability to take punishment in the future. Scientific research in recent years has backed up what MMA fans have long known: Getting knocked out makes you more susceptible to future knockouts. That’s a big problem when your level of fame means you’re getting marquee opponents each time out.

If Masvidal’s career is defined by a long period where he was better than his rep, followed by a short period where he was equal to his rep, followed by a substantial period where he wasn’t as good as his rep, he will hardly be alone. That’s often the way in MMA. The good news for Masvidal? Even if he is in that final stage, it’s still a much better spot than the first stage. The big checks are coming in either way.