The Bottom Line: The Illusion of Supremacy

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There were a few champions that had truly separated themselves from the competition going into 2022. In the Ultimate Fighting Championship, the top three ranked men’s pound-for-pound fighters were Kamaru Usman, Alexander Volkanovski and Israel Adesanya. All had ruled their divisions since 2019 and defeated the fighters perceived to be their toughest competition. As we head into 2023, only Volkanovski remains champion, with the other two having been brutally knocked out in the fifth round of fights they were moments away from winning.

In Bellator MMA, the top pound-for-pound accolade was held by the undefeated A.J. McKee, who made quick work of former featherweight champion Patricio “Pitbull” Freire. The biggest threat to his championship run seemed like it might be the potential that he would move up in weight class or leave for the potential of pay-per-view points in the UFC more than any specific challenger. Meanwhile, in the Professional Fighters League, Kayla Harrison continued to dominate the competition with her second women’s lightweight tournament victory. Discussion around Harrison centered on the ability to find her competition, with the implicit belief that was unlikely to come from the active PFL roster. Like their UFC counterparts, Harrison and McKee also fell.

Along with Valentina Shevchenko in the UFC women’s flyweight division, these were the fighters in the sport who appeared most dominant over the rest of their divisions. Adesanya had beaten almost all of the top middleweight contenders, some of them twice. Usman was not far off from that standard. Harrison ran through everyone she was matched with. McKee had not cleaned out his division the same way, but he had won 18 straight fights in Bellator, captured its grand prix championship and made quick work of arguably the most accomplished fighter in the history of the promotion. Unfortunately, supremacy in MMA is usually illusory. There’s always another challenger coming, and 2022 was another MMA year defined by upsets. Even Shevchenko was given a surprisingly tough challenge in a split decision against Taila Santos.

How these surprises will be remembered will depend in significant part by what comes next. When great champions suffer a setback and then regain their title, the defeat can often feel like even more of an upset and thus will be more memorable. However, the loss feels less important in the big picture than a changing-of-the-guard fight that marks the end of a dominant reign.

In the case of Usman and Adesanya, the nature of their defeats makes it feel likely that they will regain their titles. After all, they were close to winning before suffering stunning knockout losses. There are also factors cutting against them. Neither man is young, with Usman already 35 and Adesanya 33. They don’t have low-mileage bodies, either. Usman has been grinding going back to his high school wrestling days and has talked openly of the wear and tear on his knees, in particular. Adesanya, meanwhile, had a long kickboxing career in addition to his 25 mixed martial arts fights. A big knockout loss can often precede more, as we’ve seen so many times and most recently with the once iron-chinned Frankie Edgar.

Usman and Adesanya also face very different challenges in the men who dethroned them. In Alex Pereira, Adesanya confronts an older man who has been through the wars himself and who has less experience in their current sport. On the flipside, he also faces a man who seems to have his number, having beaten him three straight times, all under different circumstances. Adesanya’s self-confidence helps on that count, but it’s a psychological challenge for anyone.

Leon Edwards, on the other hand, is younger than Usman and riding on the biggest high of his fighting career. His popularity has skyrocketed since his August victory in Salt Lake City, and the knowledge that he finished Usman will surely impact the way both fighters approach an inevitable rematch. Of course, Edwards still has to defeat a machine of an opponent who largely dominated their most recent bout. It’s not hard to imagine Usman controlling their third fight and Usman-Edwards 2 being remembered like Matt Serra-Georges St. Pierre or Julianna Pena-Amanda Nunes.

McKee faces a different set of challenges heading into 2023. He has moved up to lightweight and may never rematch Freire at 145 pounds. McKee instead has to try to regain the buzz he had prior to his upset decision loss in April. The nature of the defeat plays to his favor, because while it was a flat performance, it was hardly as if he got beat up or exposed. At 27, he has plenty of time to remind people of his ability. Of the four stars who suffered surprising upsets in 2022, McKee’s loss feels most likely to be forgotten.

The toughest road to redemption lays ahead for Harrison. Whether critics were right or not, her defeat to Larissa Pacheco seemed to affirm those who argued her success was a product of soft competition. Pacheco is an excellent fighter, but Harrison beat her twice already. As such, it’s hard for Harrison to redeem herself all that much even by beating Pacheco again. Without finding a way to take on Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino or the aforementioned Nunes, there aren’t any obvious paths for Harrison to counter the negative narrative about her.

Harrison’s defeat to Pacheco may be perceived more like Ben Askren’s loss to Jorge Masvidal, even if in both cases Askren and Harrison are being underestimated. Like McKee and unlike Usman and Adesanya, Harrison has less to gain from winning a rematch to the fighter who bested her in 2022. Unlike McKee, she doesn’t have a different set of high-quality opponents to conquer. It’s a predicament, but her doubters would be unwise to count her out.