UFC 125 ‘Resolution’ Analysis: The Main Card

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The more things change, the more they stay the same.

In 2011, Takanori Gomi still has trouble defending against chokes; Nate Diaz still cannot deal with wrestlers who put him on his back; and Brandon Vera remains stronger in all pre-fight disciplines than inside the cage.

Below, an in-depth look at the five main-card matches from Saturday’s UFC 125 in Las Vegas, along with our opinion on which fights are likely to be made next for the 10 participants.

Clay Guida def. Takanori Gomi -- Submission (Guillotine Choke) 4:27 R2

What happened: The “Carpenter” bounced around the cage like Blanka from “Street Fighter” for almost two rounds before catching the “Fireball Kid” with a guillotine from the guard. In the beginning, Gomi tried not to let Guida’s antics get to him, choosing to pump his jab. Guida’s game plan appeared to involve going for takedowns late in the round, once Gomi opened up a little with his strikes. Guida used a Gomi knee strike to take him down before eventually forcing the tap.

Forecast for Guida: With three wins in a row, Guida is closing in on the upper third of the UFC lightweight division. Good future tests for him would include former champion Sean Sherk, Evan Dunham and George Sotiropoulos, provided the latter two can win their upcoming fights.

Forecast for Gomi: The 32-year-old has lost all the momentum he picked up with his spectacular first-round knockout of Tyson Griffin last August. A loser in two of his three UFC fights, the former Pride Fighting Championships lightweight ace is in a must-win situation in his next fight. In this crucial showdown, it would be nice to see him face another ex-Pride fighter, like Mac Danzig, Yves Edwards or Aaron Riley.

Dong Hyun Kim def. Nate Diaz -- Decision (Unanimous)

What happened: Korean star Kim provided the Cesar Gracie-trained Diaz with the same treatment he gave “The Ultimate Fighter 7” winner Amir Sadollah last May: a top-control clinic for the better part of three rounds. While Diaz used his grappling skills to put up some resistance in the first period, briefly threatening with a heel hook, the Californian became increasingly frustrated with the stifling mix of judo and wrestling which “Stun Gun” brought to the table.

Mid-way through the third round, a visibly tiring Kim seemingly milked a barely-illegal knee strike from Diaz for a much-needed breather. The younger brother of Strikeforce welterweight champ Nick Diaz came to life late in the final frame, but in the end, was unable to generate enough offense and dropped a unanimous decision.

Forecast for Kim: When it comes to controlling the whereabouts of a fight, there are few welterweights better than Kim, whose style is reminiscent of a 170-pound Yushin Okami. Next for the “Stun Gun” could be the winner of upcoming bouts between Jake Ellenberger and Carlos Eduardo Rocha, Carlos Condit and Chris Lytle, or Diego Sanchez and Martin Kampmann.

Forecast for Diaz: It is pretty clear where Diaz’s weaknesses lie, as his four Octagon defeats have all come at the hands of wrestling-based fighters. This is somewhat surprising, since once of Diaz’s teammates, Jake Shields, is one of the best wrestlers in all of MMA. To bounce back, Diaz will likely be paired up with a pure striker or grappler. Brian Foster, T.J. Grant, or even Mike Swick would certainly like a shot at the kid from Stockton, Calif.

Thiago Silva def. Brandon Vera -- Decision (Unanimous)

What happened: Despite a one-year layoff caused by herniated discs in his back, American Top Team’s Silva looked as good as ever in his drubbing of onetime UFC headliner Brandon Vera. All three rounds followed the exact same scheme: Vera started strong, letting off some striking fireworks, before being taken down and pounded on by the physically stronger Brazilian.

Despite his wrestling background, Vera did not come close to stopping any of Silva’s takedowns. One would have also expected a little more resistance on the ground from a Lloyd Irvin brown belt, as well. Instead, Vera was beaten down from half-guard, side control and gut-wrench position. The ultimate humiliation came late in the third round, when Silva, visibly frustrated with Vera’s passivity, used open-handed strikes to slap Vera about the head and drum on his back.

Forecast for Silva: Silva is officially back in the mix; here’s hoping the big Paulista can stay healthy for an extended period of time. Matt Hamill, Krzysztof Soszynski, or the runner-up of Ryan Bader-Jon Jones could be next in line for him.

Forecast for Vera: Over the years, “The Truth” has sold many on his hype. Vera convinced us that there was more to come from him eventually, that his supreme skills in multiple disciplines would eventually translate into Octagon greatness. However, at 33 years of age, the time for him to be considered a future prospect is through. After three straight defeats, Vera’s time inside the Octagon is likely drawing to a close.

Brian Stann def. Chris Leben -- TKO (Knee and Punches) 3:37 R1

What happened: Stann was pegged as an All-American stirrup-holder for Leben until a more prominent matchup, like Wanderlei Silva, was available for “The Crippler.” Unfortunately for Leben, somebody forgot to tell the former United States Marine. From the opening bell, Stann went after the “TUF” alumnus, showing Leben a miserable night inside the cage. A powerful right hook saw Leben crumble to the mat. After Leben briefly got to his feet, Stann crushed him with a knee strike and bombed away until referee Josh Rosenthal stopped the punishment.

Forecast for Stann: It would be interesting to see how Stann performs against a returning Alan Belcher, Dan Miller, or even jiu-jitsu whiz Demian Maia.

Forecast for Leben: A fight between fellow “Ultimate Fighter” enfant terrible and Hawaiian resident Kendall Grove could provide attraction. Alternatively, Leben could take on Rob Kimmons or the winner of Kyle Noke vs. Chris Camozzi.

Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard -- Draw

What happened: Maynard set the house on fire in the opening round, punching the champion to the brink of consciousness on multiple occasions. In a round which should have easily be scored 10-8, and possibly even 10-7, Edgar was rag-dolled and had his nose busted up, only surviving thanks to a champion’s resolve. The lightweight title holder somehow made a full recovery between rounds one and two, coming back to win the second stanza with agile movement, crisp boxing, and a big takedown.

Maynard had trouble getting hold of the elusive Edgar, who did an excellent job of avoiding the takedowns which had cost him in his first meeting with the “Bully.” Both fighters took turns winning rounds, and the fight could very well have been tied going into the fifth and final frame. There, Edgar landed the greater volume of shots, while Maynard connected with harder punches. Neither man could take the other down, which resulted in the final five minutes being fought exclusively on the feet. The official scores were 48-46 Maynard, 48-46 Edgar and 47-47, marking the first draw in a UFC title fight since B.J. Penn and Caol Uno in 2003.

Forecast for Edgar: Although it would have been a treat to see Edgar drop down a weight class to face featherweight juggernaut Jose Aldo, it is only right for the UFC to schedule an immediate rematch between Edgar and Maynard. WEC lightweight title-holder Anthony Pettis will have to wait a little longer for his shot at UFC gold, president Dana White has decided. Edgar and Maynard’s third meeting could take place as early as May.

Forecast for Maynard: There could not have been a more frustrating outcome for the “Bully,” especially after his stellar first round. The hard-nosed Las Vegan was close to tears when it was announced at the post-fight news conference that Pettis would be next in line. The UFC brass has since had a change of heart, and we will now see Maynard and Edgar lock horns for a third time.

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