UFC 183 Statistical Matchup Analysis: Silva vs. Diaz
Most
expect a standup battle between Anderson Silva and Nick Diaz. |
Photo: Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com
After a lackluster 2014, the Ultimate Fighting Championship has built a steady gust of momentum in the month of January, culminating in a clash of long-dormant legends at UFC 183 this Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. Anderson Silva and Nick Diaz are legitimate stars with substantial gravitational pull on the almighty needle, and while neither man has a firm footing in the middleweight ranks, this is a genuinely intriguing matchup from a narrative, stylistic and business standpoint.
Diaz last surfaced to drop a pair of welterweight championship bouts -- one for the interim title and one for the real strap -- and subsequently announce his retirement. Ever the big-game hunter, he will be fighting above 170 pounds for the first time since 2009, when he choked out Scott Smith in a catchweight bout. Although Diaz has performed well in his two fights at 180 pounds, it is safe to say “The Spider” will be the biggest name he has fought north of welterweight.
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There is plenty of incentive on the line, and this is a compelling matchup, so let us see what the numbers have to show:
The anthropometrics are equal enough to call it a wash, though how Diaz wears the extra middleweight pounds will be something upon which to keep an eye. It is also of note that both men are southpaws. Neither Diaz nor Silva has fought against fellow southpaws since 2008 and 2012, respectively, effectively nullifying an advantage they usually hold over their opponents.
The real story of these statistics is, to the surprise of none, a
tale of two timelines. Silva is eight years the elder and made his
professional debut four years earlier, yet he has not clocked as
many Zuffa minutes as his youthful foe. To strike a similar octave,
Silva has not been out of action as long as Diaz, but he spent a
large part of his absence in physical therapy. By contrast, Diaz
has been away longer but likely has not been out of training nearly
as long. Usually a longer layoff means more ring rust, but there
are enough confounding variables in the equation to suspend that
conventional wisdom.
Both men are known for their striking first and foremost. Here is how the standup cookie crumbles:
Diaz and Silva are revered strikers, but the similarities stop there. There are two glaring differences. First, “The Spider” is significantly more accurate, his limbs like sniper shots compared to the shotgun-spray strategy of Diaz. What Diaz lacks in accuracy, he more than makes up for in volume, connecting with his opponents almost twice as often per round as Silva. This is an expected phenomenon; the more you throw, the more you tend to miss, as well.
When it comes to their preferred targets, the Brazilian is far more diverse, going up top 64 percent of the time and to the body and legs 17 percent and 19 percent of the time, respectively. On the other hand, Diaz is a lopsided headhunter at 85 percent of his total attempts, compared to 11 percent of his shots aimed at the body and the remaining four percent to the legs. The striking distance is similarly mirrored. Out of all Silva’s strike attempts, 62 percent come from distance, 15 percent in the clinch and 23 percent on the ground. The trends for Diaz are exaggerated versions of this same arc, with 82 percent of his shots coming at range, 13 percent in the clinch and five percent on the ground. These stat lines underscore the fact that Diaz is essentially an MMA boxer, whereas Silva has a greater muay Thai arsenal with which to work when he is upright.
The numbers indicate a diametrically opposed mentality between the two pugilists: Silva is an elite counterpuncher, while Diaz prefers to be the aggressor, walking down opponents with a constant barrage of punches from distance. These stylistic differences bely an important but perhaps counterintuitive point: The Curitiba, Brazil, killer bee has a much nastier sting, boasting almost twice as many knockdowns as the Stockton, Calif., stalker. The opposite side of the coin for their striking aggression is that Silva gets hit less -- a lot less. Diaz is infamous for his willingness to eat leather, and so far his chin has allowed him to do so to great effect. Whether or not that will stand up to Silva’s precision power punches will be a telltale sign; Diaz has been stopped by strikes only twice in his career.
All this specificity to conclude with a tired truism: Whoever is able to impose his strengths will win the standup battle. Silva’s age and cardio make a cameo in this regard, as it is no certainty that he will be able to keep up with a vintage Diaz pace for five rounds, especially coming off of a major leg injury.
Striking is not the only weapon they possess, however, as both are accomplished grapplers, as well. Let us see who has the advantage on the mat:
The grappling numbers are eerily similar to the striking figures, insofar as it relates to accuracy versus activity, at least.
Neither man is a renowned takedown artist, more often than not finding himself on the receiving end of takedown attempts. That being said, Diaz still shoots nearly five times as much, resulting in a much lower ratio of completions. Similarly, Diaz is much busier when the fight gets to the ground, advancing positions six times for every one positional advance from Silva. This has yielded more submission attempts and finishes, despite the fact that Silva has a much higher finish rate when he looks to elicit a tapout.
Ultimately, both are too good defensively to succumb to a submission, and it seems unlikely that either man will be able to take the fight to the ground even if he wants to -- at least without the help of a knockdown. If the fight does find its way to the swamps of jiu-jitsu, expect Diaz to be proactive in looking for submissions, while Silva is wont to strike first and submit second.
THE FINAL WORD
The betting line has recently plateaued, with Silva being the -400 favorite and Diaz the +325 underdog, giving “The Spider” an implied win percentage of 80 percent. There is some justification for Silva being so heavy a favorite, since he has been a sure-bet against everyone not named Weidman for the past 10 years. That being said, Diaz has a pace, cardio and toughness that can yield profound dividends in a five-round fight, especially against an older fighter coming off of a long, injury-induced layoff; the last time he fought an old, divisional pioneer a weight class up, Diaz decimated Frank Shamrock in one of his finest performances to date.
This is a bout between two fan-favorites that are tailored to put on an exciting fight, with Diaz taking the center of the cage and trying to herd Silva into the fence, while the Brazilian feints and slips his way into quick counters. Will Diaz be able to overwhelm his adversary or will the man long-considered the greatest fighter of all-time return to form and give another younger opponent his comeuppance?
Data for the analysis was provided by FightMetric. Eric Stinton performed all analysis. Stinton and Sherdog.com assume no responsibility for bets placed on fights, financial or otherwise.
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