Preview: UFC Fight Night 202 ‘Makhachev vs. Green’

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Lightweights

#13 LW | Arman Tsarukyan (17-2, 4-1 UFC) vs. NR | Joel Alvarez (19-2, 4-1 UFC)

ODDS: Tsarukyan (-220), Alvarez (+180)

Two top lightweight prospects collide in a fight that is shockingly interesting, given where both men were heading into their UFC debuts three years ago. Armenia’s Tsarukyan was just 22 years old at the time of his first Octagon assignment, but he had already put together a string of performances that marked him as one of the top young talents in the sport. The UFC matched him accordingly. His promotional debut came in a co-main event slot against Islam Makhachev on a card in St. Petersburg, Russia. After acquitting himself well in a loss to Makhachev, Tsarukyan then went about living up to his potential with a string of wins, most notable for how clean and one-sided they were in practice. There were the usual growing pains as Tsarukyan sought to round out his striking around the aggressive wrestling that makes up the core of his game, but those efforts have clearly paid off. Tsarukyan even scored a knockout against Christos Giagos in September for the first finish of his UFC career. Now Tsarukyan takes on a surging Spaniard in Alvarez, who has become one of the more shocking success stories during the time he has been on the UFC roster. A gigantic lightweight, Alvarez ran shop against a low level of competition on the Spanish scene with a style that did not seem particularly well-suited for UFC success. He would use his wild striking to bait his opponents into takedowns and then typically find a submission win from his back. Through the first four rounds of his UFC career, “El Fenomeno” frankly showed little promise: His debut against Damir Ismagulov resulted in a gun-shy performance against a much more technically sound opponent, and he mostly got outwrestled by Danilo Belluardo in the first round of his sophomore outing. However, Alvarez turned things around and scored a second-round finish of Belluardo, and from there, it has been off to the races. Submission wins over Joseph Duffy and Alexander Yakovlev proved that Alvarez’s success was no fluke, and he did a much better job than usual of pressing the issue against Thiago Moises—a man he managed to knock out in under a round at UFC Fight Night 197 in November. At the moment, Alvarez’s biggest worries have come on the scale. After bad weight misses in his last two fights, it was honestly a surprise to see him getting another shot at 155 pounds. Tsarukyan is the better fighter in a vacuum, but Alvarez’s massive size advantage and the danger that he consistently brings are both causes for worry that the Armenian’s momentum could be derailed. While Tsarukyan has a solid process, he answers a lot of problems by charging through opponents with his wrestling—something that could lead him into a fight-ending Alvarez strike or submission. Because of that reality, the footing for one of the best prospects in the sport feels shockingly tenuous. Nevertheless, Tsarukyan by decision is the pick.

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