Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Holm vs. Correia’

Welterweights

Tarec Saffiedine (16-6) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (25-9)

THE MATCHUP: After losing his lightweight championship and then dropping a competitive decision to top contender Tony Ferguson, dos Anjos has decided to move up to 170 pounds; and if the rumors that he walks around near 200 pounds are true, then it is about time. Dos Anjos was a terrifying dynamo as a lightweight, a powerful muay Thai striker who used intense pressure to corral his opponents into the fence, where he had the option of either teeing off with strikes or shooting for a power takedown. When opponents moved to escape the fence, dos Anjos would cut them down with round kicks that would make a Thai fighter blush; and when he managed to drag them to the floor, dos Anjos displayed a suffocating top game, punctuated by fierce ground-and-pound.

At welterweight, dos Anjos can be expected to look a little faster than his opponents, but few welterweights are as agile or quick as Saffiedine. A black belt from a knockdown karate background, Saffiedine’s prowess as a leg kicker is well-known. Always tactical, he establishes his kicks cautiously, tapping at his opponents’ legs to gauge their reactions and then chopping into the thigh as soon as the opening is clear. Less celebrated but no less effective is Saffiedine’s boxing. At range, he fights comfortably out of either southpaw or orthodox stance and keeps a crisp jab working from both. A series of injuries may have robbed Saffiedine of his best years, but with three fights in 2016, he seems to have the rhythm of his training camps back under control. More worrying, however, is his record. Saffiedine has won just one of his last four, and while losses to Rory MacDonald and Rick Story are nothing to be ashamed of, the fact that he simply could not keep Dong Hyun Kim out of the clinch bodes ill. Worse still, Saffiedine has been hurt with strikes in four of his last five fights. He adjusts well, but his chin is a liability.

Dos Anjos will pressure more effectively than Kim could, utilizing some of MMA’s best cage-cutting footwork to keep himself constantly between Saffiedine and the freedom of open space. He will also be able to compete with Saffiedine from a longer range, giving him the option to either land hard kicks and straight punches or barrel into the clinch to start working for a takedown. If Saffiedine lands and moves well from the outset, however, dos Anjos may run into problems. His fight with Ferguson cemented the notion that dos Anjos is not at his best unless he is pressuring consistently. Despite his struggles, though, dos Anjos also showed some improved out-fighting in that fight, landing a stinging jab and countering well in spots. Perhaps the most important takeaway from the Ferguson fight is dos Anjos’ stamina. The bout was conducted at a blistering pace, and though dos Anjos did not get the better of most of the rounds, he never slowed down by any significant degree -- in the notoriously noxious atmosphere of Mexico City, no less.

THE ODDS: Dos Anjos (-260), Saffiedine (+215)

THE PICK: Saffiedine is an intelligent and capable fighter, and he makes for an interesting test for dos Anjos’ first foray into the welterweight ranks. He will adapt and adjust, and there may come a time or two in the fight at which point dos Anjos has to pull back on his pressure. The adaptability he showed against Ferguson, however, and the breakneck pace at which that fight was fought both give me the impression that the Brazilian will be able to wear down Saffiedine, hopefully showing newly emphasized speed in the process. The pick is dos Anjos by unanimous decision.

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