Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 162, Bellator 231 & Bellator 232
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UFC Fight Night 161
Ben Askren (-185)
Askren's run in the UFC has been nothing short of unusual, with a bizarre technical submission over Robbie Lawler followed by a UFC-record five-second knockout loss to Jorge Masvidal. In those two bouts, "Funky" has yet to land a significant strike. If there were a prop bet on that metric, we would strongly advise to place money on Askren finally landing his first significant strike with the promotion in this bout.
Jiu-jitsu practitioners such as Demian Maia
have experienced difficulty when clashing with talented grapplers
that can resist their efforts to get the fight to the ground. Maia
had a
notable stretch where he faced Tyron
Woodley, Colby
Covington and Kamaru
Usman in succession, and went an unparalleled 0-49 in combined
takedown attempts. The similar thread between those men was that
they were All-American level wrestlers in their collegiate careers.
In addition to being a national champion-level disc golfer, Askren
was also a four-time All-American wrestler at the University of
Missouri and competed for the U.S. Olympic Trials. If prior history
is any indication, Maia will greatly struggle trying to take Askren
down.
In our past analysis of Gilbert Burns vs. Gunnar Nelson at UFC Fight Night 160, we surmised that two talented grapplers could produce a kickboxing match as each respected the other's game. Although each man there tried to take the fight down more than once, the bout was largely contested on the feet. Neither Askren nor Maia is the level of striker of these two fellow welterweights, so tentative periods of range-finding and inactivity could present themselves. We do not expect that Askren, who has overcome and rarely been threatened by other grapplers in the past, will fall into Maia's traps and be in any significant danger as he cruises to a decision win. Following this logic, Fight Goes to Decision is an equally enticing -120, should you believe that this will go all five rounds.
Michael Johnson vs. Steven Ray Goes to Decision (-155)
As Johnson is a -310 favorite and we also have him winning the fight, we would be remiss not to mention that Johnson Wins by Decision is currently +140. Instead, when selecting this particular prop bet about the UFC Singapore co-main event, we prefer to have a backup plan in case Steven Ray pulls off the upset. Johnson will be facing a fighter in Ray that has only won on the scorecards in the last four years, finishing his first two opponents in his UFC tenure and then the rest by judges' verdict. With this particular style matchup and recent history in mind, we predict this fight will be decided in the hands of the judges.
The last four bouts for Johnson came in the featherweight division, although one of his two wins down one division came after Johnson missed weight. Finalist of "The Ultimate Fighter: Season 12," Johnson has several wins over major names -- Tony Ferguson, Dustin Poirier, Edson Barboza -- mixed in with unexpected and uninspired defeats just when his stock was on the rise again. His Achilles heel being his submission game, over half of his losses (eight) have come by tapout, and each of his last four have come inside the distance. Luckily for "The Menace," Ray has only attempted five submissions in his Octagon career, and none have been successful. We anticipate that this bout will largely be contested on the feet across three rounds, making it a more appealing line to pursue instead of Johnson as the sizeable favorite.
Bellator 231
Roy Nelson (-185)
A note before discussing these bouts under the Bellator banner: while betting lines have opened up for the main cards of this doubleheader, the only prop bet available for any of these scraps is whether the fight will go the distance or not. Additional lines may open up as we approach the events, and if so, pursue them as you see fit. For example, in this scenario, we would have been comfortable with the expectation that Nelson will win by knockout, but such a line is currently unavailable.
This bout, as many can readily observe, is a rematch that does not seem particularly thrilling because of the recent history of two men. Combined, Nelson and his opponent Frank Mir have lost their last seven bouts, and still sit atop this Bellator card due to name recognition and relative fame. Over their last 10 bouts put together, Nelson and Mir hold a record of 5-15, with six stoppage losses in that span. When the two first met, Mir took the fight to the ground, and did damage on top to secure the win. When not on top, Mir crowded the big-swinging "Big Country" to take away Nelson's best weapon. As Mir's striking game has not developed to the point of being able to utilize technical boxing and footwork to stay away from the power of Nelson, his likely only route to success is to repeat what won him the fight all those years ago. If he clinches up with or takes Nelson down for three rounds, he could come out with the win.
Largely known as a submission expert, Mir holds the record for the most submissions in UFC heavyweight history (eight) and technical submissions in company history (three). Despite this mastery in the grappling game, Mir has largely shied away from that aspect of his game in the last several years, opting to strike with his opponents instead. The only two victories for Mir recorded in that aforementioned 10-fight stretch came by knockout, as he finished Antonio Silva and Todd Duffee in the first round with strikes in 2015. Three consecutive knockout losses does not bode well for a fighter who has been stopped by strikes 10 times in his career, especially against a power-puncher in Nelson. This may go down to who has more left in the tank, as the matchup between two heavyweights combining for over 83 years on the planet will likely be reduced to a case of "who lands first." We expect that Nelson's chin has still not deteriorated to the point that he will not be able to absorb damage while he tries to set up that big right hand, and when he does, Nelson will right his record while handing Mir his fifth consecutive defeat.
Bellator 232
Douglas Lima (-155)
One could scarcely find a more opposing pair of paths to the tournament finals between Rory MacDonald and Lima. Lima crushed his way through the competition, putting Andrey Koreshkov to sleep in Round 5 of their meeting to earn one of the latest stoppages in company history. Following that win in his rubber match with Koreshkov, Lima handed Michael Page his first career defeat with a devastating short uppercut to turn the brash Brit's lights out in May. Contrast this with MacDonald's run through the tournament, where he came off of a demoralizing knockout loss up a division to Gegard Mousasi by drawing with Jon Fitch. Thanks to MacDonald's status as the champion, he was allowed to advance in the competition as he had retained his belt. Despite looking like he was ready to leave the sport for good, MacDonald returned six weeks later to outfox grappling wiz Neiman Gracie in June to take a decision.
At Bellator 192 in 2018, the two men battled it out for five rounds, and MacDonald came away with a decision that did not fully illustrate what went down between them. Perhaps one leg kick away from earning a stoppage win, Lima battered MacDonald's left leg but was put on his back one too many times to come out with victory. While both around the same age in their early 30s, MacDonald appears to be ready to find a new calling, having said multiple times that he did not feel the same drive to fight as he once did. It was telling in his win over Gracie, as he picked up a relatively one-sided victory but could have inflicted a great deal more damage to his opponent but opted not to. Lima will be coming at MacDonald with everything he has to start off Round 6, and we expect that he will let his leg kicks fly as hard and possibly more often than their first encounter. A few of those will remind MacDonald of the pain he endured last year, and Lima's kicks should pave the way to victory as he exacts revenge and wins his belt back, all while picking up a $1 million check.
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