UFC 182 Statistical Matchup Analysis: Jones vs. Cormier

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Just a few days into the New Year, the Ultimate Fighting Championship will put its best foot forward, kicking off 2015 with one of the most anticipated fights in recent memory. Jon Jones and his light heavyweight strap have been on hold since April. However, after several scheduling changes, including the date and the opponent, he will finally come off the shelf, putting his belt and his pound-for-pound status on the line in the UFC 182 main event on Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.

On the other side of the Octagon is former Olympic wrestler and Strikeforce heavyweight grand prix winner Daniel Cormier. Long considered the man to beat Jones, the American Kickboxing Academy representative has looked nothing short of dominant since he dropped to 205 pounds.

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The feud between the two is well-documented and rife with hyperbole from both sides, so let us go to the numbers to seek some clarity:

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Both Jones and Cormier are essentially undefeated, a disqualification loss for “Bones” notwithstanding, and both men have been training at elite camps for roughly the same amount of time. There are only two significant numbers that separate the two here: Jones is eight years younger and has a foot-long reach advantage. In terms of their age, it will be interesting to see how Cormier contrasts with his youthful foe, as 35 is generally considered closer to the retirement side of the spectrum for fighters. At the same time, Cormier has weathered very little meaningful damage over the course of his MMA career thus far. On the contrary, Jones has fought longer, been in more lengthy wars and has sustained more injuries. Whether or not the youth advantage will fall on the side of the younger fighter is yet to be determined.

However, there is no respite from Jones’ absurd reach, which has been an insurmountable obstacle for each of his opponents to date. Since both men throw the majority of their strikes at range -- a stat into which we will delve more in the next section -- it is hard to paint any kind of silver lining for Cormier here. In fact, Cormier has the shortest reach of any of Jones’ UFC opponents, rendering this disparity as perhaps the determinant factor in the fight.

Here is a more precise look at how the two pugilists’ striking numbers stack up:

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Both men exchange accuracy advantages across the board, falling accordingly with their relative work rate; Jones has a more balanced striking attack in terms of his intended target, with 68 percent of his strikes aimed upstairs and the remainder split equally between body and leg shots at 16 percent apiece. Comparatively, Cormier has greater tunnel vision with his striking, headhunting 81 percent of the time, attacking the body with 13 percent of his shots and firing at the legs a mere six percent of the time. Since both fighters are equipoised at throwing eight strikes per minute, it is safe to say Jones has a more diverse striking arsenal.

When it comes to where they like to strike from, Jones and Cormier share a similar trend. Jones throws 68 percent of his strikes from distance, 18 percent of them on the ground and 14 percent of them in the clinch. Likewise, Cormier attacks mostly from distance -- 64 percent of his total output -- while favoring strikes on the ground slightly more than the clinch, 20 percent and 16 percent, respectively. This is important: Jones does not just strike more from distance -- not surprising given his reach advantage over the rest of the division -- but he is also much more accurate in doing so. When considering Jones’ ability to put his hands on Cormier from an extra foot away, that difference in accuracy is a game-changer.

That is not the whole story, though. It is noteworthy that Cormier has slightly better defense, eating three less significant strikes per round, and just as important in how he achieves it. Cormier is light on his feet, and he utilizes his athleticism to push the pace, get in his opponents’ faces and mitigate their striking opportunities. When working with such a limited reach, this is possibly the only way to successfully mount a meaningful offensive. If the former Olympian is to get through Jones’ daunting reach, he will need to execute this strategy in spades.

Let us see which of these decorated amateur wrestlers has the advantage on the MMA mat:

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There is very little separation in the grappling department; Jones and Cormier attempt and complete takedowns with equal aplomb. The real differences surface once they successfully take the fight to the ground. Whereas Cormier is far more active and effective at advancing position and throwing strikes from the top, Jones is the busier submission artist, even though they share an equal submission finish rate. It is statistically unlikely, unless set up by a powerful striking barrage, that this fight will end by submission -- it has not happened to either of them yet, and both have fought better submission artists in the past.

Cormier has yet to be taken down in his professional career, though he has only had to shuck off 11 total attempts. Meanwhile, Jones has been staunchly staying upright, with only Alexander Gustaffson able to claim a completed takedown on the champion, who has otherwise eluded another 28 attempts. It will be interesting to see if either of them will be able to take the fight to the ground, let alone keep it there. Cormier undoubtedly has the superior credentials insofar as pure wrestling goes, but Jones has much greater physical tools with which to work, and he has used them just as successfully in MMA. The intangible here is that most of Cormier’s stats come from fighting above his natural weight class. Whether or not his acclimation to fighting larger opponents will make a difference against the pound-for-pound mainstay will reveal itself at UFC 182.

THE FINAL WORD

This is a fight that makes even the most jaded, hardcore MMA fans giddy. When it comes to the history of light heavyweight fights, it is an immediate contender for the most significant; not since a 14-0 Lyoto Machida took on a 13-0-1 Rashad Evans has there been a title fight between more-or-less undefeated fighters. Needless to say, the first headliner of 2015 is an early frontrunner for “Fight of the Year.” Predictably, the oddsmakers have tabbed Jones as a narrow -175 favorite to Cormier’s +155, giving “Bones” an implied win probability of 64 percent. Only a few title defenses away from holding the UFC record, this is a pivotal fight for Jones, regardless of any bad blood. His buoyancy in the discussion of all-time greats will greatly lean on the outcome of this bout.

Much hullabaloo has been made about Jones inhuman reach and size advantages -- and rightfully so. Conversely, Cormier has spent his entire career being at a reach disadvantage against larger fighters, and he has convincingly won every time. As the adage goes, styles make fights, and Cormier may very well have the style tailored to dethrone Jones.

Does Cormier have the skillset to pull off the impossible, or will the rangy champion prove to be too much?

Data for the analysis was provided by FightMetric. Eric Stinton performed all analysis. Stinton and Sherdog.com assume no responsibility for bets placed on fights, financial or otherwise.