Opinion: The Twin Demons of Complacency and Contentment

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In both of the championship matches at UFC 269, the betting favorites lost. On the surface, their defeats appear to have little in common. Dustin Poirier was only a small favorite, opening at -165 and closing at -135, with most acknowledging that Charles Oliveira presented a serious threat, and many, myself included, predicting the Brazilian would retain his title. By contrast, Nunes was a monster -1200 favorite and virtually everyone — once again including myself — laughed at the prospect of Julianna Pena offering any challenge. It's one of the largest title fight upsets in Ultimate Fighting Championship history, even if it doesn't hold a candle to the biggest one. Yet, despite those differences, Poirier and Nunes were defeated by twin demons that plague even the greatest of fighters. The one that beat Nunes is called Complacency, while its sibling, which took down Poirier, is known as Contentment. Let's examine each of these pernicious entities in greater detail.

Complacency

Nunes had been on a truly legendary run. Prior to last weekend, she had been undefeated for over seven years, ever since being stopped by Cat Zingano at UFC 178 on Sept. 27, 2014. She went 12-0 during that stretch, including dominant first-round stoppages of most of the top fighters in the history of her divisions. She demolished Cris Cyborg, Ronda Rousey, Miesha Tate, Germaine de Randamie the first time, and Holly Holm in under five minutes each. While I and a majority of fans think Valentina Shevchenko did just enough to edge out Nunes in their rematch, Nunes unquestionably won their first encounter and is officially 2-0 against a foe who has her own claim to being the best ever. While I've never been a fan of the marketing “undisputed women's GOAT,” which is premature, insulting to other great female fighters, and a disservice to Nunes herself, she had conquered all the best challenges, with no one left in her path who could remotely touch her. It's easy to see how Nunes would become bored and ultimately complacent. Honestly, what remotely interesting opponent was out there? Certainly not Pena. After all, Pena had lost just two fights ago, being choked out by de Randamie, an opponent Nunes had dominated twice, in the first submission win of the kickboxer’s career. Pena's lone win since then, which earned her a title shot, had been a late finish of 40 year-old Sara McMann, who had easily won Round 1 against Pena, and was a lesser version of the McMann that Nunes eviscerated in the first round during her run back in 2015. With such a seemingly simple foe, why bother to go hard for six weeks or more in training camp? Why worry about learning new skills, sharpening old ones, or even getting one's cardio on point? The fight should have been a cakewalk.

Honestly, I had felt that Nunes had been afflicted with complacency for a number of fights, but she was so great that it didn't matter. Her showing in the de Randamie rematch was the first sign of this. After battering de Randamie from pillar to post in the first round, she had become noticeably tired in the middle of Round 2, and rather than engage on the feet, took the path of least resistance by taking the great Dutch striker down over and over again for the rest of the fight. Frankly, I believe Nunes benefited from some very friendly refereeing too, as Keith Peterson allowed the defending champion to spend the entire round on top despite doing precious little, neither inflicting damage nor advancing position. While I'm generally not a fan of ground fighting being stood up, I don't believe Peterson would have extended that same courtesy to a lesser star than Nunes. It was an underwhelming showing for Nunes but didn't alter the end result. She had still won easily.

Her next fight, against Felicia Spencer, was strange. Nunes appeared to have multiple opportunities to finish the challenger on the feet and on the ground, but would always back off, and appeared to spend most of the match in second gear. Afterwards, the Brazilian champion claimed she wanted to prove that she could go all five rounds. Again, it was irrelevant, as Nunes delivered one of the most one-sided 25-minute beatings in UFC championship history. Nor did it matter against Megan Anderson, who gave a deer-in-headlights performance, was finished in two minutes, and couldn't inflict so much as a scratch on Nunes.

Even realizing that Nunes hadn't been fighting at her best, I doubted it would matter against Pena, but Pena is a lot harder to take down than de Randamie, more skilled in striking and grappling than Spencer, and is infinitely tougher, with more heart than Anderson. And with Nunes having only about five minutes of cardio, Pena achieved the impossible, smashing her with an endless barrage of punches before locking in a rear-naked choke. Complacency had ensnared another victim, one of the greatest fighters of all time, no less.

Contentment

The demon that took down Poirier isn't as pernicious, but it didn't have to be, since Oliveira was much closer to him in skill. Poirier had an amazing 2021. He had headlined two pay-per-views against Conor McGregor, by far the biggest star in MMA, and had won via sensational knockout both times, elevating himself as one of the biggest names in combat sports. He had made a ton of money and become a celebrity. On social media, he talked about big-money fights in boxing and his charity work. Unlike even elite martial artists, who struggle to make serious money or break into public consciousness, Poirier was a made man on both accounts, content and happy with what he had achieved.

But Oliveira wasn't. Despite having beaten Michael Chandler for the UFC lightweight championship, he had never made the big money. Not many people outside hardcore MMA fans even knew who he was. And he certainly wasn't respected, as Poirier came into the fight a favorite and many wondered if Oliveira would quit if it became a war of attrition, which “The Diamond” excels at.

Early on, Poirier looked as great as ever in the stand-up, badly hurting Oliveira and winning Round 1. His takedown defense looked very good. But Poirier, amid all the success and contentment it brought, hadn't been working on all aspects of his MMA game, which was exposed. The furious pace of Round 1 tired him more than it should, and when he found himself on the bottom against Oliveira, Poirier looked awful, employing a sloppy body triangle from the bottom and then a closed full guard, holding onto Oliveira desperately in a manner that exposed his body to punches, while making no attempts to get up. I understand that Oliveira is one of the most dangerous fighters in any weight class from the top, but Poirier showcased one of the worst bottom games in the entire UFC, regardless. In Round 3, a tired Poirier couldn't even fight off a choke from the backpack position. Poirier had paid the price for Contentment.

While Poirier neglected aspects of his preparation and failed to evolve, the opposite was true of Oliveira. He was more tough and resilient than ever against adversity, his ground-and-pound was better and more vicious, and he showed a higher level of craftiness and intelligence. He, at least for now, has the demon of Contentment thoroughly contained.

Even the best fighters can lose for reasons having nothing to do with pure physical skill. And as Nunes and Poirier showed at UFC 269, the dual demons of Complacency and Contentment can even lay legends low.