Prime Picks: UFC 282 ‘Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev’

Come hell or high water, the Ultimate Fighting Championship will put up a championship belt on a pay-per-view for any card not containing a Diaz or McGregor. The vacant light heavyweight throne will be claimed on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, where there is a heavy favorite with a clear and distinct path to victory. The UFC 282 edition of Prime Picks turns the focus on that belt-laden affair, weighs in a little on the recent betting scandal, shines a light on a heavy-handed Philadelphian and strings together an all-favorite parlay that should pay out handsomely.

STRAIGHT UP CASH

Magomed Ankalaev Wins by TKO/KO (+155)

Truth be told, what appears to be the best lock of the fight card is actually another tilt on the main draw, but these top breakdowns need the biggest fights in order to sizzle. When diving into this UFC 282 main event, Ankalaev currently clocks in at -280, which is fair considering the strategy he can and likely will employ to get his hand raised. There is a chance the Russian settles instead for top control to slow down the Polish powerhouse Jan Blachowicz, tasting those heavy hands early and taking the path of least resistance. This would result in not only a drag of a 25-minute affair, but it would break up this knockout-promised line. Given that Ankalaev has never even attempted a submission in his entire Octagon tenure and holds a UFC knockout rate above 50%, the play on him getting it done with his striking at modest plus money is exceptionally enticing.

Before laying waste to the ultra-durable Anthony Smith in July, Ankalaev had strung together three tough-to-watch decision wins: a five-round grinder against Thiago Santos, another in which he performed unauthorized plastic surgery on Volkan Oezdemir’s eyebrow and a third where he leaned on superior wrestling to shut down the all-offense Nikita Krylov. Blachowicz’s takedown defense is far from impregnable, and if a 40-year-old Glover Teixeira can ground him on his way to an easy submission, the Dagestan native could give him fits. In addition to this ability to plant the former champ on his backside when he sees fit, the very threat of Ankalaev’s takedown can halt Blachowicz from committing on strikes. Based on his appearance and place of origin, Ankalaev may be unfairly hailed as being solely a wrestler; his striking is far more than simply a means to an end like other wrestle-heavy competitors, and his kicking game is vastly underrated.

To say Blachowicz has a puncher’s chance is unfair to his abilities and achievements thus far inside the Octagon. However, throughout his time on the roster, most of those to beat him have done so by putting him on his back. The former champ from Cieszyn, Poland, will turn 40 in a little over two months, and while power is the last thing to go, timing and speed take serious hits when fighters advance to that age. While fellow elder statesman Teixeira proved the old lions can still win gold—he claimed the belt by topping a not-that-youthful Blachowicz—the clock is loudly ticking. An unexpected X-factor would be if Blachowicz decides to utilize his own offensive wrestling, as very few have taken the Russian down and even fewer have held him there. If an upset is to come, it would be when “Polish Power” rears its head in the early rounds, and a stoppage from Blachowicz in the alternative at +380 could be worth a whiff if one expects Ankalaev to fall. It might be ugly for a while, but Ankalaev putting Blachowicz out with strikes is a prime play when he has five rounds to do so.

STRAIGHT UP PASS

T.J. Brown (-110)

Dipping down to the early prelims, a bout currently considered a pick’em is one that savvy bettors may be best off avoiding. Coinflip matches can be enticing, especially this one, where Brown is taking on a Dana White’s Contender Series pickup making his UFC debut at the age of 35. This is currently the closest matchup on the lines by a fair margin, with the nearest being Ilia Topuria coming in anywhere from -135 to -150 depending on the book. Brown’s finishes have largely dried up since moving up to the big leagues, beyond his contract-winning submission of Dylan Lockard in 2019, as the all-around skill of his opponents trends upward. While Erik Silva will gladly indulge in the grappling exchange that is sure to come in their affair, the reason for skipping a pick on this fight rests heavily in the intangibles.

As recently as Friday, a few days before fight week, Brown praised his training partners at Glory MMA. The Arkansas native splits his camps between Glory MMA and Westside MMA, with the latter being in his home state and helmed by UFC veteran Roli Delgado. His last appearance in June came equipped with coach James Krause in his corner, and he spent significant time training with the man leading up to this fight with Silva. With Krause no longer in his corner because of his Nevada-based suspension and subsequent indefinite ban from UFC events due to the gambling scandal that is still developing, Brown finds himself down a chief corner just a week prior to his fight. Teammate Marcelo Rojo did not fare well when down a key advisor, and this is the kind of unwelcome distraction that throws fighters completely off their game. Venezuela’s Silva has not quite shown himself to be a superior force who will take the major leagues by storm, so instead of flirting with a line on either fighter, it might be wise to switch to greener pastures.

DOG WILL HUNT

Chris Daukaus (+145)

At +210, Jared Gordon very nearly claimed the spot as the underdog to watch, but his proclivity for getting finished in defeat coupled with Paddy Pimblett’s submission savvy make that upset call a little less desirable. Instead, we switch to a pair of struggling heavyweights in Daukaus and Jairzinho Rozenstruik, neither of whom have earned a win in over a year. Two-fight skids for both men leave them relegated to a prelim position on this pay-per-view, but their competition has been rock-solid. Daukaus was put out by Derrick Lewis and Curtis Blaydes, while Rozenstruik also fell short against Blaydes and got plunked by Alexander Volkov. The big men come in with identical knockout rates of 92%, and given their respective momentum or lack thereof, this should be closer to even money. That is where a Daukaus play shines.

Daukaus wowed with his hand speed as he slimmed down his figure, switching to become a full-time fighter instead of a part-timer who also served as a police officer in Philadelphia. Four straight knockouts, with none coming any later than 6:23 of a fight, placed him as a person of interest, only for Lewis and Blaydes to shut him down hard within the last year. Suriname’s Rozenstruik undoubtedly has the power to do the exact same, but his hesitance on pulling the trigger has found him losing fights in which he otherwise should have been firmly in the driver’s seat. Rozenstruik finds himself watching fights go by when he should at the very least be countering, and a quicker Daukaus could beat him to the punch and capitalize on openings and lulls in action. Already an underdog, it is not necessary to dig down to call for a Daukaus knockout, although at +210 it is not objectionable.

AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION

Paddy Pimblett (-250)
Dricus Du Plessis (-175)
Billy Quarantillo (-170)
TOTAL ODDS: +249

There will soon come a time when Pimblett hits his hard ceiling in the UFC, as “The Baddy” slowly works his way up the lightweight ladder while becoming something of a celebrity. None of his three outings thus far—Luigi Vendramini, Rodrigo Vargas and Jordan Leavitt—have seen Pimblett come out unscathed, and he has had his bell rung on multiple occasions. Thankfully for the Liverpool, England, representative, the aforementioned Gordon is not a lights-out power puncher. While “Flash” puts up solid striking totals when he performs, his blows have not downed a single opponent thus far in the Octagon. The men to put Gordon away are generally highly regarded, so it is not a case of his falling at the first sign of adversity. He could turn things around in the later rounds should Pimblett gas himself out hunting for a finish, but the Brit as one leg in an all-favorite parlay is a more reasonable selection.

Neither Ankalaev at -280 nor Pimblett at -250 are individually juicy, as they are fair expectations on how those fights will play out. Therefore, the “People’s Straight Up Cash” pick is du Plessis, who will soon rise to the occasion and add another loss on the growing pile for Darren Till. While South Africa’s du Plessis comes out like his hair is on fire, Till can sit back and wait for his right opening as he loads up on a big left hand. This hesitance has cost Till in big fights, while he has done just enough to sneak out decisions over the likes of Kelvin Gastelum and Stephen Thompson. Du Plessis will not let him coast or play Till’s game and instead will force the former welterweight title challenger to fight off his back foot and play defense. The Liverpudlian may be a more polished striker on paper, but that goes out the window when he squares off against a high-volume berserker who will push the pace for all three rounds.

Already a fairly large lightweight with an impressive slate of opposition thus far, Alexander Hernandez is making the unexpected move down in weight to greet Quarantillo. Hernandez has his hands certainly full in this pairing. “The Great Ape” has flagged in fights that go later, with his Round 1 bursts getting him into danger when the man across the cage from him does not go away. Quarantillo, whose strikes landed per minute average exceeds every other featherweight in company history—including Max Holloway—will be right there in front of him throwing hands to the bitter end. The back-and-forth battles for Quarantillo have gotten him into trouble against willing brawlers, and Hernandez will welcome a firefight for a time. However, the work rate of Quarantillo does not fall off after the 10-minute mark, and he should be able to comfortably win the last two rounds or even procure a late stoppage to start this accumulator off well.