Prime Picks: UFC 283 ‘Teixeira vs. Hill’

Kicking up the price once more, the Ultimate Fighting Championship will stage its first pay-per-view event of the year with some gusto. A hastily made 205-pound championship is thrust upon its billing, with the match preceding it being a UFC-first tetralogy. Both are close on the betting lines, but several bouts are not, with seven of the 15 sporting a favorite above -300. The UFC 283 edition of Prime Picks gives out one of the best options in the headliner, a battle to avoid, an underdog to watch and not one but two charming parlays depending on how much risk you wish to take.

STRAIGHT UP CASH

Glover Teixeira-Jamahal Hill Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-190)

Given everything strange that led to this pairing—the unfortunate injury to champion Jiri Prochazka, the Jan Blachowicz-Magomed Ankalaev draw at UFC 282 and the short-notice nature of it coming together at all—it is understandable that the lines are close. Hill, a true one-punch knockout artist who does not completely break down should that stoppage not materialize, could very well be the straw that breaks the proverbial camel’s back of Teixeira’s chin. Teixeira often gets hit hard early, but his nigh-legendary recoverability and underheralded grappling prowess have proven to be the ultimate safety valves in a tough fight. Both fighters reached the championship rounds in their last outings, but the lion’s share of their most recent appearances have lasted less than 12:30. This should, as well.

Hill rampaged his way into a title shot, bouncing back from a bizarre loss in mid-2021, when Paul Craig snapped his arm and then had to finish the job with strikes. Three knockouts over Jimmy Crute, Johnny Walker and Thiago Santos positioned him for this special opportunity, and it will be up to the 31-year-old Chicago native to capitalize. Hill’s sheer striking power is bolstered by a high-volume approach, and he is not the kind of heavy hitter who simply hunts for the big shot. By throwing enough in a short span of time, it tends to do the job sooner or later. While he is elite on the feet, he has little to no interest with the fight hitting the mat. This is an exploitable angle for Teixeira.

The Brazilian is not a dynamite takedown threat who can set up a blast double and elevate his foes’ hips to slam them to the mat. Instead, his takedown prowess tends to be more out of necessity, should he get stung and his outstanding autopilot kicks in to employ a body lock or something up close that drags the other man down. From there, his top position is exceptional, and his ability to deliver the fabled club-and-sub ground strikes to open up a choke cannot be ignored. But for Prochazka’s incredible scrambling ability and toughness, Teixeira had several moments in their encounter where any normal opponent would have tapped. If the under here is not juicy enough, there are two plus props depending on who you think will win: Teixeira wins inside distance at +170, or Hill wins by knockout at about +110. Count on one of these two hitting at night’s end. If one wants more direct “Straight Up Cash” options that did not make this cut because they were on the prelims, look to Gregory Rodrigues at -310, Thiago Moises at -360 or Terrance McKinney at -125.

STRAIGHT UP PASS

Ihor Potieria (-210)

Final retirement bouts do not always go well in the sport, as triumphant farewells may lead to just one more fight that ends in calamity. If this is truly it for Mauricio Rua, it will have been one heck of a career. Most known for his terrifying 13-fight stretch in Pride Fighting Championships, it surprises some that the Chute Boxe-trained Rua will be making his 24th appearance inside the Octagon on the UFC 283 undercard. Based on his last two matches against Craig and Ovince St. Preux in 2020 and 2022, the wheels appear to have almost completely fallen off for the 41-year-old Brazilian bomber. Despite that and Ukrainian opponent Potieria coming in as a favorite above -200, this matchup is tailor-made for “Shogun” to have one final hoorah.

In terms of matchmaking at 205 pounds, there may be fewer members on the roster who are less individually threatening and still interesting on-paper challenges for Rua than Potieria. “The Duelist” sports a gaudy 18-3 record, with most of his victories coming inside the distance, but a very low-power magnifying glass can see it was carefully crafted, like a Disney persona. Prior to showing up on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2021, his 17 wins came over just four opponents with winning records, and a couple of those took place in the Golden Coat Fighting Championship organization that allows competitors to wear gi tops while fighting. Even with Rua on the obvious downslope, he will still present himself as the best opponent Potieria has ever faced. Unless he walks “Shogun” down and blows him away in the early going, every minute that ticks off the clock should inspire confidence in Rua. This may make Potieria a knockout-or-bust play, and Rua can avoid the worst of the blows, return fire and make it competitive enough to get his hand raised one last time.

DOG WILL HUNT

Paul Craig (+165)

There are few fighters on the roster better suited to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat than Craig. The bill will definitely come due one day when that survivability betrays him and he is left unconscious while staring up at the lights. Until then, the 35-year-old can enter into dangerous fights against hyper-aggressive opponents and not be overly concerned. Johnny Walker is a “strike first, ask questions later”-type of fighter, and this has gotten him into trouble lately. Before submitting Ion Cutelaba in September, Walker embarked on a dreadful five-fight stretch with one lone victory coming in part due to uncalled strikes to the back of the head, and he has made many mistakes along the way. Craig is just the type of fighter to capitalize on any one lull in fight IQ, any foolish maneuver from the other person on top or something else that Walker can offer.

Walker overperformed in his first three UFC outings in 2018 and 2019, with three dynamic knockouts over decent names in Khalil Rountree, Justin Ledet and Misha Cirkunov. The consideration that the finish could come at any time backfired for him, as he often waited too long for a “perfect” moment that never came. Hill and Corey Anderson both crushed him while Walker waited, and Nikita Krylov grounded him out over the course of three rounds. The Brazilian by way of Scotland, England and Ireland remains an unpolished, raw collection of untapped potential, and it does not appear that Tristar Gym or SBG Ireland have yet to allow him to harvest this. Craig should not be overwhelmed by Walker’s size, but he does remain hittable. In the span of 15 minutes, it would not remotely be surprising for Craig to take advantage of something Walker does or does not do and ultimately finish the fight because of it. This makes him a perfect candidate to spring a betting upset.

* * *
In this final segment, we typically suggest one parlay option made up of three recommended betting lines to play together for maximum value. Based on the fighters competing at UFC 283, we decided to create two. One seems to be more of a sure thing—nothing is guaranteed in this wild sport of ours, but the matchups are optimal for these athletes involved—while the second is composed of two sentimental underdogs ending the night happily for the hardcore fans.

AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION I

Gilbert Burns (-470)
Jessica Andrade (-470)
Josiane Nunes (-500)
Jailton Almeida Wins Inside Distance (-470)
Total Odds: +114

Normally, as we just mentioned, these accumulators are three-leg parlays that provide some increased risk, but the plays are worthwhile when combined, not as much on their own. To drive this one down into plus territory—the best parlays generally are the ones that pay out more than you put down—we added a lock, an anchor of sorts. The first comes in the “featured fight of the night” spot and away from the coinflip headliners, in the form of a hefty favorite in Burns. “Durinho” celebrates devastating punching power and shockingly successful submission prowess, the kind of dual threat that can put Neil Magny into harm’s way early and often. While Magny has the wherewithal to survive and weaponize his own cardio, Burns’ finishing ability means that if he does not get a stoppage, he can at least bank two rounds to put the stamp on this play.

Andrade might be in her best weight category, physically, at 125 pounds. Without the straining weight cut to drop down to strawweight or the ludicrous size disadvantage she maintains at bantamweight, she still holds all of her power and brute force that melts opponents. The stout and strong Lauren Murphy might have put up more of a test a few years ago, but at 39 and counting, the cliff is fast approaching for “Lucky.” Murphy is remarkably tough, with Valentina Shevchenko the lone woman to put her away, although Andrade’s offense is not to be trifled with. This should lock in the third of four pieces of this “lock”-based series of bets.

Even at a diminutive 5-foot-2 and 145 pounds, Nunes can somehow get into range and put her hands on much larger adversaries. On two past occasions against Bea Malecki and Ramona Pascual, her power-first slug-it-out approach worked brilliantly for her, and Zarah Fairn dos Santos will oblige her in a firefight. Unless the Frenchwoman can stick and move and not get put on her back by the sheer forward momentum of the bowling ball that is Nunes, it is the Brazilian all day in this one. Finally, the anchor of both parlays is what most expect to be the lock of the night, as Almeida finally gets a Top 15 opportunity against Shamil Abdurakhimov. Practically every measurable metric favors Almeida against the 41-year-old Russian on a three-fight knockout-loss skid, other than the expected weight in the cage; “Abrek” will likely clock in 35 to 40 pounds heavier. While his speed and timing have fallen off a cliff, Abdurakhimov still has pop in his punches, and their encounter is at heavyweight. Barring a surprising salvo should the aging vet catch an aggressive Almeida off-guard early, it should be Almeida by anything he wants when he wants it.

AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION II

Glover Teixeira (+120)
Mauricio Rua (+175)
Jailton Almeida Wins Inside Distance (-470)
Total Odds: +634

The first parlay was much more straightforward with four heavy favorites, including a massive one who is still enormously favored even by stoppage. This one is more optimistic, placing faith in old lions having one more showing in front of home faithful, plus the Almeida domination we already discussed as a decent multiplier. The “Straight Up Cash” suggestion pointed towards length of time rather than a specific victor in the main event—and for good reason. Hill could easily knock Teixeira’s block off, or Teixeira could just as easily ground Hill and finish it that way. This is where the hopeful can take a stand in support of Teixeira, picking that he wins this fight in any fashion as a slight underdog. With much more five-round experience in his back pocket and the knowledge that he was up on the scorecards before Prochazka snuffed him out, Teixeira is quite a live dog here and could end this parlay in heartwarming fashion for his fans.

The other plus-money elder statesman is the choice for “Shogun” to go out with a win on home soil. For all of the reasons discussed in “Straight Up Pass,” Rua has both sentimental and actual betting line value should he employ even a small fraction of the skills he displayed as recently as 2020. In terms of winnable send-off matchups, the UFC could have scarcely given the legend a more hittable opponent willing to stand in the pocket and trade until someone falls down. There is undoubtedly more risk in this three-leg parlay hitting than the other, and a leap of faith may be needed—in the case of Teixeira and Rua, it could be warranted—but bettors may see this as a great means of cashing in on intangibles and their beloved fighters going out on ever-so-rare high notes.