Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 215 ‘Lewis vs. Spivak’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday pops back to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas for one final pre-Thanksgiving show before hitting the road in early December. An obvious step down in notoriety and acclaim from the pay-per-view spectacle that was UFC 280, the promotion’s latest effort brings with it a surprisingly evenly matched billing from a betting perspective, as only three matches on the lineup show odds of -200 or above. The stakes may be lower, but the UFC Fight Night 215 edition of Prime Picks still hones in on several choice options, including a sweet stylistic clash for an all-time knockout artist, a rising stud who should punch through his opposition and a quick turnaround for a heavyweight looking to make the most of his second impression.

Derrick Lewis Wins Inside Distance (+195)

While not likely on the chopping block with another loss, the 37-year-old Lewis undoubtedly has his back against the wall in this main attraction. Due to his level of achievement and multiple failed title opportunities, Lewis will not get many steps down in competition until the bitter end. He faces Sergey Spivak, a powerful Moldovan on the edge of the Top 15 who has developed in a big way over the years, physically and technically. Even as recent as a year ago, Lewis would have likely found himself as a betting favorite due to Spivak’s chin-first approach at times. Instead, “The Black Beast” is an underdog, with Spivak putting enough momentum together for bettors to believe a man 10 years Lewis’ junior can pull something off. While Spivak has improved substantially, power is the last thing to go, and that is Lewis’ specialty.

While Lewis’ takedown defense is not ironclad and this is an avenue Spivak could exploit, it is still solid in the early rounds. Should the fight go later, his explosion-based defense system starts to short-circuit, and he can find himself on his back for lengthier stretches. Lewis does maintain a remarkable ability to simply decide that the grappling exchange is over, doing so by throwing the person on top of him off with sheer force of will and a great deal of strength. This escape style too falls off a cliff as fights progress, but forcing things back on the feet and into his preferred wheelhouse to throw hands is what he needs to get it done. All Lewis needs is to entice Spivak into one single brawl, and he can pull off the upset win; the Houstonian still possesses one-shot knockout ability, while Spivak generally earns his strike stoppages from an accumulation of damage.

The safest bets in this match may not be of one specific victor but rather that the fight ends before the final bell. However, the specific pick of any stoppage materializing is too high at -675, and even the under of 3.5 rounds—meaning the match concludes by 2:30 of Round 4—is a whopping -460. Safe is not always rewarding; it cannot be understated that Lewis will always hold the trump card of fight-ending power, and his UFC record of 13 knockouts is not an accident. The specific line of the Lewis knockout may not be available on every sportsbook, and it ranges from +180 to +215, which may be marginally more or less valuable than his getting any finish. Spivak’s approaches get more rudimentary as fights progress and he fatigues, and rushing towards Lewis with your hands down and chin up is a recipe for disaster. In typical “Black Beast” fashion, Lewis might very well be losing up until putting the Moldovan out, but the end result is all that matters.

Kennedy Nzechukwu (-170)

This battle of frustrating inconsistent light heavyweights comes with only a modicum of confidence in the expected victor. There exists every opportunity that Ion Cutelaba turns on the jets and lays waste to Nzechukwu. The Division-I AA wrestling-type chops that come out every so often could so easily force Nzechukwu to look for answers that he cannot find. The shocking power of “The Hulk” could result in an uppercut that flattens Nzechukwu. However, the potential of an unexpected result is not worth the +150 play on Cutelaba, as Fortis MMA’s Nzechukwu just seems to have more weapons in his arsenal even if does not always have the wherewithal to use them. He might have to ride out an early storm if the Moldovan attempts to follow the strategy of Da Un Jung just pummeling Nzechukwu in the opening minutes, but Cutelaba is essentially a Round 1-or-bust aggressor.

The upside of picking Nzechukwu is that more often than not on the big stage Cutelaba makes some kind of mistake that allows his opponent to capitalize. A sub-.500 record inside the Octagon is littered with examples of “The Hulk” smashing until he slips on a proverbial banana peel. From there, it’s a wrap. The cardio should firmly be in favor of the “African Savage,” a man who does not mind pulling off finishes after dragging his foe to deep water or simply surviving when his rival slows. The range—Nzechukwu measures roughly eight inches longer in the arms and several inches taller—will be a big natural asset he can rely upon to pick up the win. Any concerns about Nzechukwu’s output and approach will quickly get put to the test, but the Texan should rise to the occasion and validate his favored status.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta Wins Inside Distance (-110)

Some three weeks removed from his UFC debut, Cortes-Acosta will get right back on the bike and allow Chase Sherman to step into the cage once more this year. These two bottom-rung heavyweights—one because this is simply his second appearance and he did not wow the masses in his first jaunt, the other because going 4-9 inside the Octagon does not inspire confidence—will throw down with high-volume, low-impact blows until one of them falls over. The knockouts for Sherman have largely come from an accumulation of damage, and the same can be said for the former pitcher in Cortes-Acosta, even though he throws plenty of fastballs. Unless Sherman capitalizes on Cortes-Acosta’s clear weakness of allowing way too many leg kicks, “Salsa Boy” can smash or wrench a limb off a big man who has already suffered five stoppage losses in the UFC thus far.

In terms of sheer size, Cortes-Acosta measures larger than most opponents that stand across from him in the cage. Sherman will be within an inch of the height and roughly the same in the arms, although Cortes-Acosta’s frame should appear notably larger. What comes with the extra weight on his body adds more stopping power, or at least stunning power, that can disrupt the active Sherman should he get his bell rung early and often. It is almost remarkable that Sherman has not even accidentally completed a takedown after 13 walks to the UFC cage thus far, so this figures to be an all-standup affair in which the big men play rock ’em sock ’em robots until the head figuratively pops off. The younger, fresher and less-concussed Cortes-Acosta has that edge, and his near even line of getting the stoppage is too good to pass up.

Jack Della Maddalena Wins by Knockout (-165)

Two early, ugly stoppage losses at the beginning of his career to this day still put a damper on Della Maddalena’s hype, especially compared to many of his fellow surging contemporaries at 170 pounds. Winner of his last 12 fights, with 11 coming within two rounds, Della Maddalena wrecked Pete Rodriguez in about three minutes before demolishing Ramazan Emeev a few months later, and he is not looking back. The step up in competition to Danny Roberts, a respected British veteran whose own career has been plagued by general inactivity, is the perfect test to see if Della Maddalena is ready for a Top 25-caliber opponent. Roberts will not shy away from an exchange, but this has led to his undoing against heavier hitters. Della Maddalena in one such heavy hitter.

Della Maddalena’s success against Emeev was not without obstacles, as the sambo practitioner grounded him and threatened with a few submissions before the prospect got his bearings. Roberts, whose longer arms have allowed him to snatch up a brabo choke in the past, should approach this contest like he is facing a venomous cobra that is only dangerous when its head is upright. Put the snake on its back, figuratively speaking, and a lot of the lethality is taken away instantly. Wrenching the Aussie to the mat and keeping him there are two totally different issues, and “Hot Chocolate” is not remotely known for his wrestling. Given Della Maddalena’s hard-charging style, Roberts will be fighting off his back foot early unless he gets respect on the feet. Before the final bell is heard, however, Della Maddalena will land the right combination—possibly setting up his most devastating shot with effective body work—and down Roberts. The only question at that point will be who is next for Maddalena, but by then, the knockout ticket will have cashed.