Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 228 ‘Fiziev vs. Gamrot’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship concludes its seemingly never-ending run of shows with a trip back to the UFC Apex on Saturday in Las Vegas and does so with an odd mix of surging and skidding competitors on the lineup. Five different combatants will be coming into this card on three-fight losing streaks, with 10 fighters having dropped at least their last bout. Despite this reality, three of the 11 bouts see a betting favorite above -250, so this event could be prime for some upsets. Join the UFC Fight Night 228 edition of Prime Picks as we zero in on four underdogs worth scoping out: an unheralded lightweight contender, a featherweight who packs a wallop, a stone wall of a bantamweight and a hefty heavyweight who can put on quite a pace.

Mateusz Gamrot (+130)

If this fight was scheduled for three rounds, the pick might be different. However, with an extra 10 minutes to operate in the cage, the underdog Gamrot is the more valuable option of the two. It is not so simple to analyze this as a striker-versus-grappler affair. Gamrot can more than handle himself on the feet, while Kyrgyzstan’s Rafael Fiziev is no fish out of water when it comes to wrestling. “Gamer” is the more well-rounded of the two, with a substantially more aggressive approach when it comes to takedowns and ground control. Additionally, he is more defensively sound from a statistical perspective, which makes him the top play in the smaller cage.

He makes fighters think about the takedowns that are almost guaranteed to come—the Polish lightweight has landed at least one in all seven of his trips to the Octagon—but Gamrot’s striking defense is not to be ignored. Even so, from raw significant strike metrics, the last four fighters to face him have all connected more times than Gamrot. Additionally, he has been dropped in three straight fights, and the 32-year-old’s recoverability has been on point to not only get back up but come back strong. His own blows have some pop on them—he sat down Scott Holtzman a few years back—and he can target them effectively and efficiently. Above all, his conditioning is exceptional, as he can shoot in for a dozen takedowns or more and not gas out.

The superior technical skills on the feet go in the favor of Fiziev, a former Tiger Muay Thai striking coach. While he and Gamrot share identical accuracy rates of 51%—they also match average cage times of 12:16—Fiziev is the much more active of the two. His high work rate has also been a double-edged sword, as it encourages his foes to throw right back with him with no concern of a takedown mixed in. It will work to the advantage of the former KSW champ to pursue takedowns practically right out of the gate to give Fiziev something else to watch. Few have grounded Fiziev, although Justin Gaethje scored his first takedown in the Octagon against him. Fewer have kept Fiziev on his back for long, but Rafael dos Anjos showed that it can be done. Unless Fiziev can shake Gamrot to his core with powerful strikes early and often, the Pole’s dogged determination to chain takedowns together can eventually wear Fiziev down and succeed more often than not.

Dan Ige (+172)

When a fighter suffers his first loss as a professional, several things can change. Confidence can take a hit, along with the mentality of “nobody can beat me.” Suddenly, skills that carried the person to a clean 15-0 record, with a majority of those coming via tapout, can fall into question. In December, Bryce Mitchell ran into an obstacle he could not simply take down and strangle. Ilia Topuria hit him with hammers, bloodied him up and ultimately manhandled Mitchell before forcing him to surrender to an odd-angled kata gatame. Thankfully for “Thug Nasty,” Ige is not the type to wrangle him in such a fashion. However, Ige does have several other weapons in his arsenal, including underrated fire in his fists, to make this an extremely competitive fight. No one has made Ige say “Matte” yet, and Mitchell does not appear to be the one who will do it.

The danger of Mitchell’s submissions may be slightly overstated, given that he has performed exactly one in seven UFC appearances thus far: his twister on Matt Sayles nearly four years ago. It is one thing to hit a triangle on Bobby Taylor (4-7) or catch Isaac Ware (4-1) with a rear-naked choke. It is another thing entirely to ensnare someone like the durable and willing Ige. The lack of other tapouts in the Octagon has not been for a lack of trying—Mitchell has 10 attempts on his UFC ledger thus far—but a higher-level fighter breeds higher-level defenses and game plans. Mitchell would be best suited to try to replicate Movsar Evloev’s successes and hold Ige down for several minutes even if he cannot get the sub, because the Hawaiian’s takedown defense is far from stalwart. If Ige can force this primarily into a kickboxing match, where he does not fight cautious of oncoming takedowns and clinch attempts, he can squeeze out the upset.

Miles Johns (+150)

In a battle between former Legacy Fighting Alliance bantamweight champs, the heavily favored Dan Argueta will try with all his might to drag Johns to the floor. Unfortunately for Argueta, the fire plug that is Johns makes it quite difficult for anyone to wrestle him. Cole Smith succeeded exactly one time as the lone man to take Johns down in six UFC walks. Since then, Johns has stonewalled those who have tried while otherwise being right in their face ready to slug it out. If “The Determined” has enough determination to ground Johns, he will have to have the wherewithal to keep him there and nullify his opponent. Johns’ get-up game and sneaky power can make Argueta pay for attempts, which makes him a prime candidate to win at plus money.

“Chapo” is strategic in his energy reserves, as he maintains enough to pull off late stoppages. Both fighters won their respective belts courtesy of five-round split decisions over tough adversaries. Argueta boasts six of his pro wins in the first round and had another against Ronnie Lawrence fall through because of an early stoppage in June. On the other hand, Johns has never seen a fight end in Round 1 on either side of the equation, so he has not displayed the type of approach that allows him to get caught early. Quick-strike blitzes have been his undoing, as Mario Bautista took him out with a flying knee while John Castaneda pulled off a club-and-sub that rendered Johns unconscious. Argueta is capable on the feet but is largely a means-to-an-end striker, and Johns has the wherewithal to shut that down and bust him in the chops. It might be a gritty battle that has a little bit of everything, but Johns at +150 is a good price given his real upset potential.

Jake Collier (+125)

The next heavyweight to take down Collier will be the first, as no big man has succeeded in putting the former 185er’s back on the canvas via wrestling. There is quite an asterisk next to that statistic, however. In seven walks to the cage above 206 pounds, no one has bothered trying to take Collier down. “The Prototype” will take on a willing grappler in Mohammad Usman, who maintains the type of smothering top control where it may only take one takedown to win the round. Belying his 265-pound frame, Collier is quite a nimble individual, even if he has tended to fight to the level of his opposition and lose multiple nailbiters that he otherwise should have won. The speed advantage should vastly be in Collier’s favor, and as long as he does not succumb to Usman’s ground game, he can pull off the win and end his rough stretch.

The nickname of “The Motor” may not be an apt one for the lumbering, plodding Usman, who leaves fans wishing for more activity. With regional heavyweight talent such that Usman can lay out the likes of “Butter” Van Michal Palacio or Reggie Cato, it is extremely difficult to gauge his talent level. Usman can come out of the gate firing, but if that does not succeed, opponents are generally in it for the long haul against him. While he does hold a few wins on the scorecards, they have largely come because the man he is facing is equally fatigued. Putting money on a man who has dropped three in a row—including a contentious decision to Andrei Arlovski in 2022—may be a lot to ask in this all-underdog approach. However, as long he stays on his feet and does not walk into the home run punches that Usman will be winging at him without much setup, Collier can outbox his fellow 34-year-old and pick up a late stoppage or decision.