Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 236 ‘Hermansson vs. Pyfer’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship trots out the middleweight division with a well-matched lineup that sees only one betting favorite at -300 or higher this Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The stakes may not be the greatest, but there will be some movement at 185 pounds at night’s end, and a few contenders may emerge. Join the UFC Fight Night 236 edition of Prime Picks as we juggle two of those 185ers, look forward to a banger in the co-main event and suggest a two-for-one that should safely cash.

Jack Hermansson (+205)

Hermansson possesses all the tools to separate the wheat from the chaff in the UFC’s middleweight division. This has kept him in or around the Top 10 for quite some time, with slightly above-average power coupled with the ability to maintain a high pace, decent wrestling chops and not a ton of defensive liabilities. On the other hand, “The Joker” can get cracked. He is not impervious to getting caught, and he tends to lose the bigger fights of his career. Consider him the 2024 version of fellow UFC Fight Night 236 competitor Brad Tavares, whose all-around skill set kept him in contention while never seriously stamping himself as a contender. With what he brings to the table as a sizeable underdog, the value is on Hermansson in the main event.

Joseph Pyfer is an offensive beast, and he introduced his submission abilities to fans in his last appearance by putting Abdul Razak Alhassan to sleep with an arm-triangle choke. Until then, those seeing him on the major stage had largely seen Pyfer’s timing and punching power on display, as he put the stamp on Alen Amedovski and Gerald Meerschaert. About eight years Hermansson’s junior, Pyfer will undoubtedly possess a speed advantage. Still, Hermansson only presents himself as a fighter who relies on quick attacks and sudden movements when he pursues submissions—ask Kelvin Gastelum, David Branch or the aforementioned Meerschaert. If Pyfer puts hands on his opponent early and often, he can look every bit of the -260 favorite that books have him now.

The underdog has shown plenty of times his capacity to go hard late in fights and not simply wilt when 15 minutes elapse. On the other hand, Pyfer has only gone the distance once as a pro, which also serves as the lone occasion he has reached Round 3. Every minute that ticks off the clock, bettors should have more faith in the Swede to get his hand raised. Should Hermansson push past the early blitzes and make Pyfer work for it, he can tire out the self-proclaimed “trending superstar” and remind him it takes a lot of energy to be a rock star.

Dan Ige (-180)

The blueprint has been laid to beat the Hawaiian bruiser. Put him on his back and keep him there for prolonged stretches, and he will not be able to punch you in the face. In his last two defeats, Ige has been grounded a combined 14 times thanks to Movsar Evloev and Bryce Mitchell. Andre Fili can act as a wet blanket, stifling opponents like Charles Jourdain and Artem Lobov over the years, but those men are a far cry from the perennial contender in Ige. If Fili cannot take the fight to the mat, it will be up to him to make the most of his three-inch reach and height advantages to keep just enough of a distance to potshot his way to victory.

Fili takes this fight on short notice, although the Team Alpha Male staple rarely gets out of shape when out of camp. Conditioning will not likely play a factor unless he backs up most of the matchup, as he does not prefer to fight off his back foot. Both men may come into this co-headliner with complicated game plans, but when they boil it down, these two featherweights would like nothing more than to point down to the floor, nod to one another and start trading leather. Brawls may ensue across this 15-minute encounter, and of the two, Fili has been taken out while Ige’s beard has held together against the fists of names like Josh Emmett, Calvin Kattar and Chan Sung Jung. Ige on the front foot crowding Fili in the pocket will be his best path to victory, which he prefers to employ.

Rodolfo Vieira (-120)

This is the second verse of this middleweight pairing, the same as the first. Once scheduled for November, Armen Petrosyan fell ill on fight night to scuttle the matchup. A few months later, the lines are almost the same, shifting slightly higher for Vieira from -115 to -120. Petrosyan can be found at +100 at best on the other side of the equation. What has not changed is the value maximization in the Vieira pick, with his winning inside the distance still in the neighborhood of +135. This stylistic matchup remains as stark as it can get on paper, but of the two, Vieira has a better chance on the feet than Petrosyan does on his back. A bet on the Brazilian is still not a waste at these close odds, especially against a fighter susceptible to controlling grapplers.

The only two people to escape without serious harm against Vieira did so in ways Petrosyan has not shown the capability to emulate. Chris Curtis completely nullified all 20 attempts from “The Black Belt Hunter” to take things horizontally, while Anthony Hernandez allowed Vieira to blow his gas tank embarrassingly and hit a beauty of a guillotine choke. The multiple-time Mundials and ADCC champion will use his striking, which can sometimes consist of looping shots that leave him wide open for counters, to close the distance. From there, it is only a matter of time until he either drives through the hips with a double-leg entry or uses the clinch to hit a trip. The Armenian, by way of Russia, will have to rely on a sprawl-and-brawl approach if he hopes to be the third to defeat the vaunted grappler, and Petrosyan has to imagine that the floor is lava. It will be up to Petrosyan to stay on the outside or force Vieira to expend his energy on low-percentage takedown attempts to get his hand raised.

DOUBLE PLAY (-162)

Konklak Suphisara-Bruna Brasil Lasts Over 1.5 Rounds (-425)

Devin Clark-Marcin Prachnio Lasts Over 1.5 Rounds (-325)

Rather than a straight pick for this last section, due in part to a dearth of options, we look to a time-based twofer. While the two weight classes are leagues apart, at strawweight and light heavyweight, both matches have particular indicators that they will go long. For the first selection, much of the designated over is because of Konklak Suphisara, more famously known by her Thai combat name of “Loma Lookboonmee.” Win or lose, eight of the Thai’s 11 professional outings have heard the final bell, with nine in total going beyond the 2:30 mark of Round 2. Submissions have been the reason for her to get out of there sooner, and that is not something the tall, rangy Brasil presents with any specific danger or deficiency. This could play out on the feet or in the clinch, but the power is not there at this level to wrap fights early for either woman.

For one of these two in the 205-pound collision, it would be smooth sledding on paper. Prachnio sports a knockout rate below 70%, while Clark has more defeats via strikes than on the scorecards. That all falls apart when examining the performances of each man in the Octagon. Prachnio has earned just one stoppage after eight walks to the UFC cage—against the brave but fallible Isaac Villanueva. At the same time, Clark’s lone finish came over William Knight, another losing competitor no longer on the roster. Clark’s durability may be a factor, but fortunately, Prachnio does not celebrate lights-out power or lightning-quick submission prowess to take advantage of the sluggish “Brown Bear.” Prachnio is no spring chicken, either, so this has all the makings of one that takes a while to get anywhere.