Prime Picks: UFC on ESPN 49 ‘Holm vs. Bueno Silva’

With the sensational UFC 290 in the rearview mirror, the Ultimate Fighting Championship is pushing the absolute limit on the on-paper quality of its subsequent UFC Fight Night offering. In what may be designed as a forced roster culling, with just eight of the 26 combatants coming into card owning a win inside the Octagon, the promotion appears to be gearing up for the next Dana White’s Contender Series season with this event. Over half of the matches on the billing see a betting favorite closer than -200 odds, so join the UFC on ESPN 49 installment of Prime Picks, where the underdogs and plus-money plays shine.

Holly Holm Wins by Decision (+120)

Even at 41 years of age, Holm still seems to be at the top of her game, and this allows her to bump off contenders left and right at the apex of her division. Appropriately, she will take center stage at the UFC Apex, as one of a very small number of ranked combatants on the billing. As she has aged, the power of former boxer-turned-kickboxer has diminished to an extent—sort of the inverse of the old adage that “the power is the last thing to go.” No longer seemingly sporting the power to stun let alone put someone away with one shot, Holm has tried to make up for it with volume and movement, sort of like ex-teammate Andrei Arlovski’s late-career redevelopment. What “The Preacher’s Daughter” can still excel at is winning rounds, as she is a rough judge’s tally away from a four-fight winning streak, all by decision. A victory on the scorecards would drop Holm’s career finish—and knockout—rate to an even 50%, and that is the most likely outcome when she takes on Mayra Bueno Silva.

When Bueno Silva has struggled in the Octagon thus far, it has largely been when an opponent does not fall into her traps. Half of the times the Brazilian has prevailed as a pro, it has been by first-round armbar. Not quite the Julija Stoliarenko-level specialist, Bueno Silva can hit other unorthodox maneuvers like kneebars or ninja chokes, as well, but she has largely done so when pulling things off in the midst of scrambles. Her setups are quick and smooth, and she can snare a limb when one least expects it. This leads her to remaining on her back for too long at times, which has cost her against Maryna Moroz, Montana De La Rosa and Manon Fiorot when none of them took their eye off the ball on the mat.

Holm has leaned on her understated wrestling since becoming an elder stateswoman, and most foes do not seem to see it coming or stop it. Due to a plethora of punches and kicks in rapid succession, Holm has been able to set up takedowns in ways that catch ladies off-guard. Additionally, leaning on her strength and settling for heavy clinch work can allow her to secure body lock trips. Control time has been a major factor of Holm’s game, which has come at the expense of finishes or even seriously damaging strikes. Holm beat Irene Aldana in the standup recently enough to remind fans her striking is still to be respected, and she can put up numbers on Bueno Silva if she chooses not to wrangle “Sheetara” down to the canvas. The number of women who have caught Holm in a submission total exactly one. It was after much of a grueling five-rounder where she gave up her back one too many times to Miesha Tate. Luckily for Holm, the former flyweight she is facing has not displayed those Tate-like qualities of a grizzled grappler to the bitter end, and if Bueno Silva cannot catch Holm early, it might be the equivalent of a snowball rolling down a mountain for 25 minutes.

DOUBLE PLAY (+100)

Norma Dumont-Chelsea Chandler Goes to Decision (-210)

Ottman Azaitar-Francisco Prado Does Not Start Round 3 (-280)

Without doubling up on a fight—something like Holm-Bueno Silva lasts over 4.5 Rounds or an under for an undercard banger—this two-piece with tap water is a safe, simple selection of two anticipated fight results. Both of these matchups will serve onlookers on the main card barring a late bout order shakeup, and they should be predictably violent and somewhat nonviolent. The first of the two is a lightweight battle royale pitting Azaitar against Prado, who combine for two bouts to go to decision. Of their 26 professional matches, each man has competed beyond the 10-minute mark on two separate occasions. Azaitar would like nothing more than to split wigs with his hands, while the 21-year-old Prado strikes with youthful exuberance and is more than willing to move things to the mat to hunt for a choke. In what could be a very Andy Cappian experience of feet, fists and dust clouds, these two will try to bludgeon and batter one another until one goes down. It should be all over before the third round begins, which would check the box for the first leg.

Dumont and Chandler are ranked at bantamweight, but that means absolutely nothing with the match being contested at the soon-to-be defunct featherweight category. It is unclear what the UFC will do with the 145-pound division given that Amanda Nunes is out of the equation, and for all fans know, this could be a de facto No. 1 contender fight. Together, the two women have engaged in 17 fights, and 11 have gone the distance. This includes the last six engagements for Dumont, whose only fight ending before the final horn came when Megan Anderson punched her out in 2020. Chandler’s own debut went well when she pounded out a fast-fatiguing Stoliarenko, but this does not appear to be something she will be able to do against Dumont. It might result in grueling exchanges where the two try to outmuscle one another and wear on each other in the clinch, but it should go the distance to nail this two-part parlay.

Terrance McKinney Wins Inside Distance (+140)

For the maximum of 15 minutes, McKinney and Nazim Sadykhov will swing it out and hunt for the finish. It is quite unlikely that the two hear the final bell, given McKinney’s at times reckless aggression coupled with his rapidly diminishing cardio. After 18 pro fights, the slight underdog has still yet to involve the judges. His hard-charging style can get him into trouble, as he has been decked by not one but two flying knees in his career. It might be a surprise that McKinney comes in as the underdog, although his last outing against Ismael Bonfim showed a more hesitant approach that worked against him. With double the experience of Sadykhov while still coming in at a younger age, McKinney’s finishing instincts can let him get the better of Sadykhov. Already the underdog at +110, a prop may not be necessary to some, but a little more bang for your buck for the finish—he does have a 100% finish rate—is likely the best course of action if putting down for McKinney.

But for a crisp knee that split Evan Elder’s eyebrow completely open, Sadykhov was well on his way to losing a spirited decision, having dropped the first two rounds. Sadykhov was hardly shut out from an offensive perspective, but Elder simply beat him to the punch, figuratively and literally. Sadykhov proved himself fairly hittable as he obliged in a slugfest, and Elder put him down in the first round. Were McKinney in his place at that time, it is entirely possible that “T. Wrecks” would have procured the finish that Elder could not garner. Whether due strictly with strikes, from the club-and-sub variety or due to intense grappling scrambles that lead to a choke or limb getting snagged, McKinney has a wealth of options to get his hand raised. When the dust settles, McKinney can pull off the upset and add one more stoppage to his solid resume.

Istela Nunes (+170)

As far as underdogs go, it is an admittedly tough sell to push a fighter on a three-fight losing streak who has struggled against the lower echelon of the strawweight division already. This will be the fourth chance for the Brazilian to pick up a win inside the Octagon, and she welcomes 24-year-old Russian Victoria Dudakova to the cage. In what may be an indictment of her opponent rather than confidence in Nunes herself, the UFC’s desire to jam-pack the roster with signees on 10/10 contracts—$10,000 to show, $10,000 to win—has resulted in drastically lower quality pickups who are not nearly ready to join the roster. Topping Maria Silva was a decent feat, and she did so with smothering top position, but that might not work against the energetic Nunes. It might be more of a flier than a full-throated endorsement, but fading the young Russian is a fair consideration.

Nunes, while she has lost in all three of her UFC appearances to date, has shown glimmers of what she might be capable of should she put it together. At age 30, she currently sits in the midst of her athletic prime, but improvements from fight to fight are not as vast as they would be for a young lady in her mid-20s. A muay thai striker by trade, Nunes would like nothing more than to get in the pocket and throw down. If Nunes can entice Dudakova into a brawl by keeping her back away from the cage and shutting down takedown entries, she holds the striking acumen to gain the upper hand. Dudakova has not proven to be the type that can crack like Yazmin Jauregui, so it will be up to her to wrangle Nunes with her combined sambo and judo skills and turn this into a match that is more horizontal than vertical. If Nunes remains on her feet for the majority of the fight, she can prevail to score the upset and blow up the undefeated record of the Open Fighting Championship vet. Should confidence in the 30-year-old be nonexistent, with the expectation that Nunes will get thrown around like a grappling dummy, Dudakova pulling off the submission is a reasonable +185 as the alternative.