Sneaky Shockers

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When one thinks of giant upsets, single fights with huge odds come to mind. Matt Serra vs. Georges St. Pierre. Roxanne Modafferi vs. Maycee Barber. But what about matchups where the initial disparity between combatants is even greater, but it takes a few years for them to meet? Where the shift is gradual, and it sneaks up on you? Consider the recent Bellator Paris main event of Gegard Mousasi vs. Fabian Edwards. Mousasi was a significant but not enormous favorite at -250, and Edwards ended up winning the verdict. Not a huge upset, by itself.

Yet consider where each man was two to three years ago. Mousasi had defeated Douglas Lima to become Bellator MMA middleweight champion for a second time and then knocked out an excellent grappler in John Salter. He was one of the very best middleweights in any organization and a pound-for-pound talent. Edwards, meanwhile, took a borderline robbery against Mike Shipman that 83% of observers on MMA Decisions scored for his opponent, then lost back-to-back decisions against Costello van Steenis and Austin Vanderford. A Vanderford, incidentally, that Mousasi would end up destroying in 85 seconds in early 2022. Edwards was a solid fighter but appeared to simply lack the skills to fight at an elite level. If you had claimed in 2020 that Edwards would beat Mousasi, people would have laughed at you. The odds for Mousasi- Edwards within the next few years might well have been -1000 or more then. And yet, here we are. Nor was there anything controversial or lucky about Edwards' victory; he won at least three rounds, possibly four. He was the better fighter.

This sneaky shocker occurred through movement at both ends. Leading up to the bout, Mousasi talked about a persistent injury to his neck causing numbness in his hands and not allowing him to sleep, even bringing up retirement. It gives me no pleasure to write this, considering he has been my favorite fighter for the last 15 years, but Mousasi should indeed hang it up. At 37 years old, with an incredible 20 years and 60 fights of professional MMA, he is washed-up. Against Edwards, he was noticeably slower both in terms of his movements as well as reactions. His cardio was more limited, a common issue with older fighters, and he wasn't as physically strong. Even his major strengths, like his brutal top game, ground-and-pound, jab, and right cross were all blunted.

However, let us not ignore the incredible improvement and performance of Edwards. In the biggest match of his career, he put on the fight of his life. This was a vastly different, better martial artist than the one who should have lost to Mike Shipman in late 2019. He now had a dangerous, accurate right jab, moved and defended beautifully, and was a much better grappler, both defensively and offensively. Those who have read my columns know one of my favorite fighters is Fabian's older brother, Ultimate Fighting Championship welterweight champion Leon Edwards, whom I picked to win and also defend the title against Kamaru Usman. For the first time in his career, the younger Edwards did a pretty good impression of his older brother. Mousasi may be washed up, but he would still have beaten a lot of quality middleweights that night, but not Edwards, who I can confidently state is a top 10 middleweight now.

There are many such examples of giant upsets sneaking up on us. Two of my favorite come from the first season of The Ultimate Fighter. Imagine if you told people in 2004 that the drunk maniac and limited brawler Chris Leben, who been dominated by Josh Koscheck and lost via cut to the much smaller Kenny Florian, would at any point beat the world's greatest light heavyweight and top pound-for-pound talent Wanderlei Silva? Silva at that point was PRIDE's 205 pound king and had brutally knocked out Quinton Jackson twice, the same Jackson who had dominated the UFC's Chuck Liddell in the Pride Fighting Championships Grand Prix. Moreover, Silva was in the midst of a legendary four-year, 18-fight unbeaten streak. If you had suggested Leben eventually beating Silva on a message board in 2004, everyone would have assumed you were a “TUF noob” who didn't know anything about MMA—not even its weight classes, since Leben was an average sized middleweight at best and Silva a light heavyweight. Nor could age be the sole explanation, as Leben is only four years younger than the Brazilian.

And yet, in 2011 not only did Leben beat Silva, but he knocked him out in 27 seconds. He had improved and Silva had become much worse, with increasingly slow reactions and a brittle chin. Silva was only around a -200 favorite when it happened but might have been -2000 in 2004. In hindsight, this isn't such a shocking result. Silva's risky style meant he would always eat a certain number of flush connects in a fight, and his chin was getting worse all the time. Even against fairly light punchers like Shungo Oyama and Kiyoshi Tamura back in Pride, Silva had been briefly knocked down. It's not surprising that a more technical, powerful, faster striker like Leben would have put him out when his chin had eroded much more. However, that's hindsight bias. In 2004, predicting this result would have you dismissed as an idiot.

How about an instance where both fighters had moved so much that the initial underdog became a big favorite? If you had said in 2005 that Kenny Florian, then a mere 2-2 after being mauled by Diego Sanchez in “The Ultimate Fighter” finale, who appeared to have limited wrestling and striking, with some jiu-jitsu and a nice elbow as his only weapons, would defeat the greatest lightweight in the world, Takanori Gomi, who was a huge, powerful wrestler and possessed some of the best, deadliest boxing in the entire sport, you would have been mocked as a dumb “TUF noob.” Yet by the time they fought in 2010, it was actually Florian who was the big -350 favorite. Despite only being 31 years old, Gomi was a shadow of his former self, with a number of poor performances and losses proving it. He had problems with cardio, submission defense, striking defense and his chin. Often, he looked unmotivated and out of shape. Florian, meanwhile, had utterly transformed himself into an excellent grappler, including good wrestling, and a solid striker. It was little surprise when Florian tapped Gomi with a rear-naked choke in Round 3, though it sure would have been five years before.

I encourage readers to look for these sneaky shockers in MMA. It's fascinating to think of how insane certain results would have sounded if you had told them to fans just a few years ago.